12 questions to be answered in the 2016 NFL draft
After months of anticipation and countless mock drafts, the 2016 NFL draft has finally arrived. Here are 12 questions we most anticipate getting answers to beginning with Thursday night's opening round.
1. How might the trades atop Round 1 affect other quarterback prospects?
Cal's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz are expected to go to the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, after those teams' bold deals in recent weeks to leapfrog into the first round's top slots for what they hope are franchise passers. Consequently, Memphis' Paxton Lynch, Michigan State's Connor Cook and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg could see their values inflated either by teams currently seeking quarterbacks – specifically the New York Jets, who pick 20th, Denver Broncos (31st) and, possibly, the San Francisco 49ers (7th) – or ones that might soon be looking to groom a successor for their current incumbent. The Dallas Cowboys, who select fourth, Cleveland Browns (8th), Kansas City Chiefs (28th) and Arizona Cardinals (29th) could fall into the latter category. Still, even if the next tier of quarterbacks is elevated, it won't necessarily be into Round 1. In five of the past nine drafts, two or fewer have gone in Round 1, and only twice in that stretch have as many as four been picked.
2. How could the draft impact veteran quarterbacks?
The Niners can almost certainly snare Lynch, who would plug into Chip Kelly's offense better than he would anywhere else as a rookie. In that scenario, GM Trent Baalke would likely try to reignite now-dormant trade talks with the Broncos, who would have been current 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick's next team had he accepted a paycut. If Denver GM John Elway is unable to draft a successor to Peyton Manning – the Broncos should have their answer by the end of Thursday night – then maybe he'll soften his request that Kaepernick take less money. However if Elway gets Lynch, then Kaepernick will probably find himself playing for Kelly – barring interest from a team like the Jets, who are assessing their own options amid stalled negotiations with free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brian Hoyer, recently cut by the Houston Texans, will also have a better idea of his future by the end of the weekend. And there's one other wild card: Depending on how things unfold, the Eagles could find a favorable market for Sam Bradford, who's apparently upset by the team's plans to draft his eventual replacement less than two months after he re-signed for two more seasons.
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3. Who will be the first non-QB taken?
The most likely players to hear their name called with the third pick are Mississippi LT Laremy Tunsil, Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey and Oregon DL DeForest Buckner. All are regarded as elite prospects, and each would fill an immediate need for the San Diego Chargers, who currently possess the No. 3 selection. However the Bolts are rumored to be fielding offers, and a deal could bring DE Joey Bosa and RB Ezekiel Elliott, both former Ohio State stars, into play.
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4. Which schools will be having draft parties?
The first round will be a big night for Buckeyes. Five Ohio State players, a record-tying amount for one school, will attend Thursday night's first-round gala in Chicago and will be accompanied by coach Urban Meyer, who couldn't ask for a better recruiting photo op. Bosa and Elliott are virtually guaranteed to go in the top 10, and there's a possibility four of their teammates could follow and potentially tie the mark of six first rounders by a school in one draft, set by Miami (Fla.) in 2004. Other colleges with a reasonable chance at three-plus first rounders include Ole Miss, Alabama and Clemson.
5. What position group is deepest?
There is a bumper crop of defensive linemen. Buckner and Bosa are the headliners, but up to a dozen might be worthy of a first-round selection with several more quality prospects right behind them. "It's a defensive draft," said NFL Network chief draft analyst Mike Mayock. "Best interior defensive line I've seen maybe since I've started doing this." However the plethora of D-linemen could push many of them deeper into the draft as teams scramble to fill other positions. Ramsey is the top defensive back, but it wouldn't be shocking to see eight or more called Thursday.
6. Are the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns done dealing?
Titans GM Jon Robinson and Browns executive VP of football operations Sashi Brown dealt out of the first and second spots, respectively, in bids to stockpile picks, including additional first rounders in 2017, that may help them revive a pair of downtrodden franchises. Either could certainly continue with that tack, but both have the resources to move back up, too. Cleveland's 12 picks are tied for the most this year with San Francisco, however if Brown likes, for example, Lynch, he might have to jump from No. 8 ahead of the 49ers to get him or another player Cleveland covets. Meanwhile, the Titans now own six of the top 76 selections. "My phone is still working," Robinson quipped after trading the top pick. "Feel free to call." He may welcome a deal that allows him to move from No. 15 back into the top 10, where he might score a tackle like Tunsil or Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley in order to better protect second-year QB Marcus Mariota.
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7. Will there be another influx of exciting wideouts?
Doubtful. The past two drafts have been flush with game-breaking receivers – Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, John Brown, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins (and, perhaps, still medically challenged 2015 first rounders DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Kevin White) – so this year's group already had the deck stacked against it. But don't be surprised if this is the first draft in six years that doesn't have a wide receiver picked in the top half of the first round. Among this year's notable prospects, TCU's Josh Doctson may have the most complete skill set, Baylor's Corey Coleman and Notre Dame's Will Fuller are the deep threats and Mississippi's Laquon Treadwell boasts solid hands and size (6-2, 221) that should make him a red-zone threat.
8. Will the Seattle Seahawks participate in the first round?
Only GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll know, but they’ve shunned it lately. The Seahawks haven't turned in a card in Round 1 since 2012, when they took LB Bruce Irvin, who's no longer with the team. In recent years, Seattle has parlayed its top pick in trades for proven NFL talent (WR Percy Harvin in 2013 and TE Jimmy Graham last year) and traded out in 2014 in exchange for additional picks in subsequent rounds. The track record Carroll and Schneider have for finding talent well beyond the second round – QB Russell Wilson, LB K.J. Wright, S Kam Chancellor, CBs Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane and WR Lockett – is the primary reason Seattle has become a perennial powerhouse.
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9. What's the outlook for LBs Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith?
Completely healthy, both are top-five talents and contenders to be picked first overall. UCLA's Jack remains a probable top-10 pick, but a lukewarm medical report on his surgically repaired knee – a torn meniscus limited him to three games in 2015 – seems to be causing concern about his long-term prognosis. Matters are far less encouraging for Notre Dame's Smith, who tore two knee ligaments in the Fiesta Bowl and suffered nerve damage that has apparently already scuttled his 2016 season. Despite his ability, he may not be called until the draft's final day unless a team with picks to burn takes an earlier flier on him.
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10. How badly has Deflategate hurt the New England Patriots?
Though the forfeiture of their first-round pick, 29th overall, stings – perhaps more so from a public relations standpoint – the Pats are hardly crippled. After trading pass rusher Chandler Jones to the Cardinals, New England owns 11 selections, including two apiece in the second and third rounds. Bill Belichick has the flexibility to move up or down and is in prime position to roll the dice early on a talent like Smith. And despite QB Tom Brady's reinstated four-game suspension, don't expect the Patriots, who typically only carry two quarterbacks on their 53-man roster, to target another passer early, if at all.
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11. Will a kicker be off the board by Friday?
No kickers were drafted last year. The last one picked in Round 2 was Mike Nugent in 2005, and only three have gone in the first three rounds since Sebastian Janikowski was a first rounder in 2000. Don't expect Florida State's Roberto Aguayo to become just the second kicker taken in Round 1 since 1978, but it seems likely he'll go in the second or third round. The NFL's lengthened extra point has put new emphasis on the play, now effectively a 33-yard attempt. Aguayo was perfect on his 198 PATs in college. More pertinent, the 2013 Lou Groza Award winner was 69-for-78 (88.5%) on field-goal tries and didn’t miss on any of his 49 attempts inside 40 yards.
12. Which player will have the biggest impact as a rookie in 2016?
Typically, tailbacks have among the easiest transitions from college to the NFL, and two of the last three offensive rookies of the year have come from the position (Eddie Lacy in 2013 and Todd Gurley last year). Elliott, who's coming off consecutive 1,800-yard rushing campaigns and averaged nearly 7 yards per carry at Ohio State, could make a huge splash, especially since – unlike many rookies – his uncanny abilities as a receiver and pass protector suggest he’ll rarely come off the field.
Follow Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.