How Lionel Messi and Argentina can still advance in the World Cup
Martin Rogers
MOSCOW — Lionel Messi and Argentina are still alive in the World Cup, but the modern maestro is in severe danger of suffering yet another disappointment at soccer's biggest tournament.
A crushing 3-0 defeat to Croatia on Thursday night gave Argentina just one point through two games, at the bottom of Group D with a -3 goal differential.
As it stands following Friday's games, Croatia (6 points, +5 GD) has clinched passage to the last 16, with Nigeria in second (3 points, 0 GD, followed by Iceland (1 point, -2 GD) and then Argentina.
Following Iceland's loss to Nigeria on Friday, Argentina is actually in a good position. If Argentina beats Nigeria in the final group game, it would be certain to finish ahead of their African rival and would qualify – UNLESS Iceland beats Croatia AND finishes ahead of Argentina on goal differential.
Nigeria defeated Iceland 2-0 on Friday, bumping itself up to second in the group on four points, with an even goal differential.
Here we take a look at factors involving Argentina and its group rivals, and see which ones might salvage something from a turgid tournament for the South American country.
Croatia's Motivation
With wins in its first two matches and Iceland's loss, Croatia has all but clinched the top spot in the group. The Croats would have to lose by a sizable margin against Iceland and have Nigeria pummel Argentina to lose the lead.
A fear for Argentina is that if Croatia – with little to play for – may take its foot off the gas and rest several players in the group finale against Iceland.
With Argentina behind Iceland in goal differential, this is something we need to keep an eye on.
Tuesday Turmoil
Ultimately, Messi will step on the field Tuesday with a chance to help Argentina reach the round of 16.
The task facing he and his teammates that night will be simple - win, score as many goals as possible, and hope that the fates fall in their favor.
Argentina's campaign is not done yet, but it has turned out nothing like its passionate fans back home, or its biggest superstar, could have imagined.
