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SPORTS BETTING
Men's College Basketball

Virginia vs. Texas Tech - National Championship picks and best bets

John Holler
Sportsbook Wire

MARCH MADNESS: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

The NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament, fondly known as March Madness, is down to the National Championship game.

And then there were two:

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

If smothering defense and low-point totals are what you want in your college hoops, Monday's Virginia-Texas Tech may be the game of the year in terms of every shot and pass being contested and every point being earned.

Virginia Cavaliers

April 3, 2008; Detroit, MI, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke (23) pitches in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. The Royals defeated the Tigers 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Cavaliers got a huge break from a missed double dribble call, but did what they've done all year - get balanced scoring and force teams to shoot over the top of their defense. Ty Jerome (21 points), Kyle Guy (15) and De'Andre Hunter (14) combined to score 50 of Virginia's 63 points as the bench contributed just two points in 20 minutes.

Virginia's defense allowed Auburn to make just nine of 31 shots from 3-point distance and held them scoreless for the first five minutes of the second half.

Their formula for winning all season played itself out in the semifinals.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Raiders first trip to the Final Four disproved a theory many had maintained - stop Jarrett Culver and Texas Tech will lose. Culver didn't score a basket until nine minutes remained in the game and made just three of 12 shots from the floor, but the swarming Red Raider defense held Michigan State to just 31.9 percent shooting (15-47) and 29.2 percent on 3-pointers (29.2).

While Michigan State was able to almost erase a 13-point deficit late, the Red Raiders took the lead midway through the first half and gave it up, despite getting little from its unquestioned offensive centerpiece.

Virginia vs. Texas Tech: By the Numbers

Virginia (34-3): Against the Spread (25-12); Over/Under (17-20, 45.9 percent over, 54.1 percent under). In the Tournament: Against the Spread (2-3); Over/Under (one over, four under)

Texas Tech (31-6): Against the Spread (20-16-1); Over/Under 15-21-1 (41.7 percent over, 58.4 percent under); In the Tournament - Against the Spread (5-0), Over/Under (one over, four under)

Virginia vs. Texas Tech: Pick and Best Bets

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, as of Sunday evening, Virginia (-1.5) is the favorite with a moneyline of -125. The underdog Texas Tech (+105) is the solid wager based off their continued defensive success. We, however, can't fault you if you choose Virginia - they just keep finding a way to get it done, even when it defies odds of probability.

All Texas Tech does is keep making bettors money. They've gone 5-0 against the spread and four of their five games have hit the under.

Virginia has won five games, but haven't covered the spread in three of them.

Both teams have hammered the under - going under a combined eight of 10 tournament games, but 118 (even money at +/- 110) is a full 10 points fewer on the O/U than any title game in the last 20 years (Florida-UCLA was 128 in 2006).

Given that Virginia doesn't go deep into its bench, Texas Tech should have every chance to wear down their starting five and hoist the championship and betting the under, while hard to do with that low a number, is the way to go because both teams are likely to push the shot clock 20 seconds in before setting up to shoot.

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