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SPORTS BETTING
Basketball

NBA Playoffs: Reasons to fade the Denver Nuggets

Ken Pomponio
Sportsbook Wire

The Denver Nuggets are one of the feel-good stories of the 2018-19 NBA season.

Led by rising stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets are not only back in the postseason for the first time in six seasons but they're the No. 2 seed in the rugged Western Conference.

Sitting Thursday at 32/1 to win the NBA title and 12/1 to win the West and owning a favorable path to Western finals, the Midwest Division-champs appear to be a rather tempting postseason value. But scratching the surface on some deeper research, a contrarian view quickly emerges:

The Nuggets not only are a team to stay away from in the futures market but they're a team to fade from the opening tip of the postseason.

Experience lacking

As aforementioned, the Nuggets haven't tasted the playoffs since getting upended in the first round by the up-and-coming Golden State Warriors as a third seed in 2013.

In all, Denver has made the postseason 11 times in the last 24 seasons, but has only made it out of the first round once (2009's trip to the Western Conference finals).

Of the 10 players who have played the most minutes for Denver this season, seven - Jokic, Murray, Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig and Juan Hernangomez - have never played in an NBA playoff contest.

Also include Nuggets head coach Michael Malone; he hasn't presided over a playoff team - and has coached just two teams with winning records (the current and last season's Nuggets) - in his six seasons as an NBA head coach.

Too young

According to RealGM.com, the Nuggets, at 24.7 years, are one of four 2018-19 NBA teams with an average roster age under 25. The others (the Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks) were long ago eliminated from playoff contention and finished with a combined 58-188 (.236) record as three of the four worst teams in the league.

As far as recent NBA history goes, only 12 of 320 playoff teams over the previous 20 seasons have featured rosters with an average age below 25, according to RealGM. Ten of those 12 bowed out in the first round, and the remaining two were knocked out in the second round (2015-16 Trail Blazers) and conference finals (2010-11 Thunder), respectively.

Stretch stumbles

Denver took an impressive 39-18 record into the All-Star break, but since then it's gone 15-10 - the seventh-best mark in the Western Conference.

While their 34-7 home record was the league's best, the Nuggets were a pedestrian 20-21 on the road, ranking seventh in the West.

Jokic, Denver's only All-Star, has struggled with physical play and earning the respect of referees, getting ejected twice for berating officials and fouling out of another contest after only 16 minutes and two points - all during Denver's final 14 games. It's only going to get more demanding for the 24-year-old Jokic on both counts under the playoff spotlight.

Speaking of which, the Nuggets face the San Antonio Spurs and playoff-wily coach Gregg Popovich, in the first round. The teams split their four meetings this year, each holding serve at home, but Denver hasn't won in San Antonio since 2012.

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