GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway - NASCAR picks and best bets
The Monster Energy Cup Series is back after the Easter holiday, and we'll get our second superspeedway race of the season from Talladega for Sunday's GEICO 500.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Who is going to win at Talladega Superspeedway?
Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Kyle Busch (+850) is the co-favorite along with Penske Racing drivers Brad Keselowski (+850) and Joey Logano (+850).
Since Oct. '15, Ford has won seven consecutive races at Talladega Superspeedway, including five checkered flags for Penske Racing.
Busch and the rest of the JGR drivers didn't have a strong showing in qualifying, although that doesn't preclude them from showing well Sunday. Anything can happen at a superspeedway like Talladega. However, with Ford's dominance in the recent past, it's prudent to focus on drivers of that manufacturer until someone can end the streak.
Stewart-Haas Racing's Aric Almirola (+1300) posted a win in the fall race at 'Dega last season in the 1000Bulbs.com 500, and he has rattled off three top-5 showings in the past four starts and four top-10 finishes in the past five green-flag drops at Talladega. He'll go off from the outside of Row 1.
Almirola's SHR teammate Clint Bowyer (+1300) turned in a best speed of 191.723 mph in qualifying Saturday and he will go off third Sunday afternoon. Bowyer is a two-time winner at the Alabama superspeedway, posting a 15.6 AFP in 26 career starts with 13 top-10 finishes and 110 laps at the track.
If you're a little less risky, Keselowski and Logano are the safest plays. Each driver has posted three victories at Talladega since the fall '14 race. While Keselowski struggled last season, the victim of incidents for a 30.0 AFP in his two 'Dega starts, that makes him more likely than ever to bounce back and perform well. Logano has three straight top-5 finishes, and he has a 9.9 AFP over his past seven Talladega starts.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sport odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Talladega Superspeedway long-shot bet
Ganassi Racing's Kyle Larson (+3200) hasn't been hitting on all cylinders this season, but he is a tremendous value. In 10 career starts he has a 20.3 AFP at Talladega, but he has been strong on superspeedways in the past, and he has posted finishes of 13th or better in four of his past five Talladega starts. If he can find some speed, and partner with teammate Kurt Busch (+1800).
Speaking of the elder Busch Brother, he has never won at Talladega in 36 career tries, but he has eight top-5 finishes, 19 top-10 showings and 266 laps while turning in a 15.4 AFP, second-best among all active drivers with at least five starts. As such, he is a decent mid-tier sleeper, too.
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