Now that he is officially the No. 1 pick of 2019 NFL Draft, the early NFL betting lines have been set on Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray for his anticipated production in his rookie season.

Kyler Murray Passing Yards and Touchdowns Prop Bets

The numbers from FanDuel Sportsbook appear manageable. The over/under for touchdown passes is 17½ (over -120, under +100) and 3,100½ passing yards (over -120, under +100). The key to this bet is whether you believe Murray will play 16 games. That is clearly the plan since Arizona traded (to the Miami Dolphins) Josh Rosen, his only real competition, to open the Day 1 starting spot for Murray.

When an over/under number is set, especially if a player is unproven or has an injury history, a lot of bettors take the under because they are always winning up until he plays enough games to go over. With these numbers, Murray will likely have to play 13 or more games to reach them given Arizona's pedestrian offense.

Touchdowns/game needed to hit number: 1.09

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Passing yards/game needed to hit number: 193.8

The days of benching first-round rookie quarterbacks (unless you're the New York Giants) are over. Over the last three seasons, of the 10 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, only Patrick Mahomes and Paxton Lynch sat. But, the only one to start 16 games as a rookie was Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz (2016). The others got into action early on, but didn't start or play 16 games.

In the case of the two who ended up in the lineup Week 1 (Wentz and Deshaun Watson, who came off the bench in Week 1), both went over on at least one of the two numbers Murray is looking at. Wentz threw for 3,782 yards and 16 TDs. Watson threw for 19 TDs and 1,699 yards in just seven games. Last year, Murray's former teammate Baker Mayfield threw for 3,785 yards and 27 touchdowns with the Cleveland Browns in just 14 games, shattering both of the over/under numbers set for Murray.

Given Cardinals new head coach Kliff Kingbury's Air Raid offense that plans to throw the ball a lot as well as the anticipation Arizona will be trailing often and needing to pass in garbage time, the yardage number should clearly go over 3,100½ yards. Jared Goff had a brutal rookie season (as did Rosen, who had just 2,278 yards and 11 TD passes in 13 starts), but when Goff met up with a progressive offensive mind like Sean McVay, his numbers spiked immediately. Kingsbury is going to put Murray in position to succeed much like Mayfield was in Cleveland last year. Yards and touchdowns don't necessarily equate to wins, but they add up quickly with a couple huge games along the way.

Two stats you need to know:

• Last season, 19 quarterbacks started 14 or more games. All of them threw for 3,200 or more yards.
• Of those same 19, all of them threw 18 or more touchdowns, including guys like Case Keenum, Derek Carr and Eli Manning - all of whom had awful seasons.

If Murray starts 14 games, those numbers should get surpassed.

Murray is oft-compared to Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, which is a pretty favorable comparison. Wilson's rookie year numbers? 16 starts, 3,118 yards passing and 26 passing touchdowns.

KYLER MURRAY BEST BET

Take the over on both unless you believe Murray isn't going to hold up for 16 games.

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