Cincinnati at Memphis odds, lines, picks and best bets
The Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) and Memphis Tigers (11-1) meet Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET) at the Liberty Bowl in the All-American Conference Championship Game. Both teams are ranked in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA Today Sports (Memphis No. 16, Cincinnati No. 21). We analyze the Cincinnati-Memphis odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Cincinnati at Memphis: Three things you need to know
1. These two are meeting for a second straight week. Memphis and UC tangled last Friday - also in Memphis - in the regular-season finale. That game essentially determined home field for this week's title contest. UM failed to cover as a 12-point favorite, winning 34-24.
2. Both teams are Group of Five standouts and eager to show the CFP committee their best wares. The home-field part is key as both the Bearcats and Tigers are solid on defense, but Cincinnati has been a much better defense at home (4.1 yards per play compared to 6.4 YPP yielded on the road). Against four foes November opponents (SMU, USF, Houston, Cincinnati), the Tiger defense allowed just 346 yards per game. Against an easier schedule, the Bearcats allowed 407 yards per contest.
3. UC's Luke Fickell and UM's Mike Norvell have both put together great recruiting classes of late. The Bearcats may have a slight talent edge overall, but the 2019 Tigers have better play at quarterback and are more dangerous offensively.
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Cincinnati at Memphis: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Memphis 34, Cincinnati 17
Moneyline (ML)
We will lay off the moneyline here. Memphis (-334) is just too chalky, with a $10 wager on an outright win for the Tigers returning a profit of $2.99.
Against the Spread (ATS)
Memphis is 7-1 ATS over its last eight late-season home games. The lone loss was while falling two points short of a cover in last week's game.
Cincinnati has more built-in turnover/special-teams swings and hidden yards. The analytics led to UC being a fade in Weeks 12 and 13 and then a play in Week 14. All three weeks were wins, going against, against and then for. The Bearcats are a slight fade this week, coming off a close game last week and some one-score wins last month. Take MEMPHIS ( -9.5, -110).
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER57.5 (-105) is a slight lean here, but it's slight enough as to not make for a strong recommendation.
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