Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning odds, picks and best bets
The Tampa Bay Lightning (19-13-4) host the Detroit Red Wings (9-27-3) Sunday at Amalie Arena for a 7 p.m. ET puck drop. We analyze the Red Wings-Lightning sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Red Wings at Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Jonathan Bernier vs. Curtis McElhinney
Bernier is expected to make his first start since Dec. 17, when he allowed four goals on 38 shots in a home loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. He is 7-10-2 on the season with a .897 save percentage and 3.24 goals against average.
McElhinney enters on a personal three-game losing streak and has dropped to 3-4-2. He has a .903 SV% and 3.45 GAA.
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Red Wings at Lightning: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today's betting odds. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Lightning 4, Red Wings 1
Moneyline (ML)
The Lightning (-400) pulled off a come-from-behind win over the Montreal Canadiens Saturday in which they fell down 2-0 early in the first period. They've now won two in a row and are 11-7-2 at home.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings (+310) are losers of five straight and 17 of their last 19. They're 4-13-2 on the road and have a league-worst minus-69 goal differential.
The Red Wings are never worth a wager, even at inflated numbers, but there's no value in the chalk of the Lightning. A $10 bet returns a profit of just $2.50 for the Lightning to win outright in regulation, overtime or a shootout.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The LIGHTNING ( -1.5, -139) are still a little expensive on the spread, where they'll need to win by at least 2 goals. The Lightning are just 13-23 ATS overall and 7-13 at home, but the Red Wings are just 5-24 on the puck line and last or near last in nearly all metrics (Corsi, scoring chances, PDO). All but one of the Red Wings' last five losses was by at least 2 goals.
A $10 bet on the Lightning to win by at least 2 goals returns a profit of $7.19.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 6.5 ( -133) with both teams on the second half of a back-to-back and the Red Wings struggling to fulfill their required share of the goal contributions. Both teams hit the Over in six of their last 10 games, but the Red Wings have scored 3 or fewer goals in five of their last six games.
Esten's NHL betting record: 144-117
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