Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals odds, picks and best bets
The Washington Capitals (37-18-6) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (37-17-6) Sunday at Capital One Arena in a battle for top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Puck drop is set for 12 p.m. ET. We analyze the Penguins-Capitals sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Penguins at Capitals: Projected starting goalies
Matt Murray vs. Braden Holtby
Murray had the day off Saturday as the Penguins suffered a 5-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres. The 25-year-old is 17-8-5 through 32 starts with a .903 save percentage and 2.80 goals against average.
Holtby was also off Saturday while the Caps took a 3-2 road loss against the New Jersey Devils. He's 0-2-1 in his last three outings but still 21-13-5 through 41 starts and a relief appearance. He has a .896 SV% and 3.14 GAA.
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Penguins at Capitals: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list.
Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Capitals 5, Penguins 3
Moneyline (ML)
The two teams enter the day tied for top spot in the Metro with 80 points apiece. The Penguins (+120) have a game in hand, but they've dropped two straight. The CAPITALS (-143) have lost four in a row for the first time all season, but the last three have been by just single-goal margins and one went to overtime.
Back Washington, as the Caps are 16-9-5 on home ice and the Pens are 15-11-2 on the road. Pittsburgh earned a 4-3 win in the season's lone head-to-head meeting to date in Washington Feb. 2. The Pens rank just 29th in Corsi For Percentage (percentage of all shot attempts) since Feb. 1 at a rate of 44.84 at 5-on-5. The Caps are 11th (51.45%).
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Based on the lopsided possession metrics, double down on the CAPITALS (-1.5, +180) and back them to win by at least 2 goals. The Caps are 31-30 ATS overall but just 10-20 on home ice, while the Pens are 28-32 ATS overall and 14-14 on the road. Seven of Washington's last eight wins came by margins of at least 2 goals. Pittsburgh lost its last two games by an aggregate count of 9-2.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 6.5 (+120) as the more profitable side of the O/U bet. The Penguins are 4-4-2 against the O/U across their last 10 games and the Capitals are 5-5 against the line, but the back-to-back situation and the early Sunday start will lead to sloppy defensive play and help open this up for the goal scorers.
Esten's NHL betting record: 247-235
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