Denny Hamlin

Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington odds, picks and best bets

Joe Williams

Sportsbook Wire

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Darlington Raceway Sunday at 6:15 p.m. ET for the Cook Out Southern 500. Below, we analyze the Southern 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Southern 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:23 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Darlington Raceway for the first playoff race. Kevin Harvick ( +325 for Sunday's race) won the first race at this track after the restart back in mid-May, with Denny Hamlin ( +350) claiming the second end of that week's doubleheader. There will be no twin races this weekend, but way more is on the line as the drive for the championship begins.

Harvick dominated the race on May 17, leading 159 of the 293 laps, starting from the sixth position and winding up in first place. He also finished third in the second end of the doubleheader on May 20.
Hamlin placed fifth in that May 17 race, and he went from 16th to first in the mid-week race May 20, leading 12 laps. It was one of six checkered flags he has earned this season.
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Erik Jones ( +1800) didn't win either of the races back in May, but he was a solid eighth and fifth in the two starts. In fact, in five career Cup starts at Darlington he has never finished worse than fifth, earning a win and an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 5.4.
Besides Harvick, Hamlin and Jones, JGR's Martin Truex Jr. ( +800) was the only other driver to earn a top-10 finish or better in both ends of the Darlington doubleheader in May.

Who is going to win the Southern 500?

You can never overlook DENNY HAMLIN. He has three wins in 16 career Cup starts at "The Lady in Black," and he has nine finishes inside the top 5 and 13 runs of 10th or better. His 7.19 AFP is best among all active drivers with at least six Cup starts.

Hamlin has led 574 laps in his career at Darlington, third-most on the circuit behind Harvick (750) and Hamlin's JGR teammate Kyle Busch (716).

Speaking of KYLE BUSCH (+1000), he was 26th in the race Harvick won, but was runner-up in the mid-week race behind Hamlin. The 2019 Cup Series champ has yet to win a race this season, although he has finished second on three occasions. He has a 7.4 AFP over his past 10 Cup starts at Darlington, second-best among all drivers with at least six starts. He is a great value at this price and more than due.

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KURT BUSCH (+2200) is also an interesting play. He has never won in 25 career starts at this track, but he has 10 top-10 finishes and a respectable 15.88 AFP. He has finished seventh or better in four of his previous five starts, inching closer to Victory Lane at the "Track Too Tough to Tame."

Darlington Raceway long-shot bets

Jones could be considered a long-shot bet at +1800, but don't sleep on rookie TYLER REDDICK (+5000). He was seventh and 13th in the two May races, his first two Cup starts at this venerable and difficult track.

In addition, watch out for JIMMIE JOHNSON (+2800). After failing to make the playoffs with a flame-out last week at Daytona, he isn't going to sulk and go quietly into the night. The seven-time champion still has something to prove in his final stretch, and he is a three-time champ at the South Carolina track, tied for most among active drivers. He hasn't won since June 2017, and this would make missing the playoffs in his final season feel a whole lot better.

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