Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and best bets
The Pittsburgh Pirates (14-27) and Kansas City Royals (17-28) open a three-game weekend set Friday night. First pitch in the contest at Kauffman Stadium is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Pirates-Royals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Pirates at Royals: Projected starting pitchers
LHPStephen Braultvs. LHP Kris Bubic
Brault is a fifth-year veteran who has appeared in eight games (seven starts) this season. He has registered a 4.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 22 2/3 IP.
- Struggles to find the strike zone at times (5.6 walks per 9). Brault is coming off a season-high 96-pitch effort, and those 96 tosses got him just 4 2/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds (3 ER on 6 H Sept. 4).
- Has averaged just 18 batters faced over his last 4 starts, so figure on the Pirates bullpen being involved in much of this one. The Pittsburgh relief corps is a middle-of-the-road group but a well-rested one, coming off an off day and not taxed too heavily in their previous series.
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Bubic owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 7 starts.
- The rookie left-hander is coming off back-to-back 106-pitch efforts. Bubic allowed 2 ER in each of those last two starts and has allowed exactly 2 ER in five of his first seven MLB turns.
- Averaging 5 IP per start. Doesn't throw a lot of first-pitch strikes (47%) but has walked more than two batters just once so far.
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Pirates at Royals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Pirates
- CFAnthony Alford(elbow) out
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
Royals
- RP Ian Kennedy (calf) out
- C Salvador Perez (eye) questionable
- OF Franchy Cordero (wrist) out
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Pirates at Royals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
Both starters are similar and average (or below). Both bullpens are similar and average.
If we come at this from a team angle and look at production-vs.-expected production and the same with wins, the Royals (-129) are a clear favorite. Kansas City has a .378 winning percentage; the team's expected production can support a figure between .425-.440.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (+115) is in nearly-always-fade purgatory. ROYALS (-129) is worth a play. Go with confidence if you can wait out a price better than -125.
New to sports betting? A winning $100 bet on the Royals (-129) returns a profit of $78.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The lean isn't significant, but the +155 price is attractive on the KC-by-two-or-more proposition. ROYALS -1.5 (+155) is worth a look or an undercard play.
Over/Under (O/U)
The total here fits the averages. Judge KC as an undervalued collection of bats, but the Bucs numbers swing the other way. PASS on the Over 9 (-110)/Under 9 (-110).
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