Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and best bets
The Miami Marlins (28-26) are at Truist Park for the second game of a four-game series against the Atlanta Braves (32-22) Tuesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Braves-Marlins MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Atlanta leads 1-0.
Marlins at Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jose Urena vs. RHP Bryse Wilson
Urena: 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 15 IP over 3 starts.
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- Last start (Sept. 17): Loss, 5-3, with 5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6 K and 2 BB against the Boston Red Sox.
- Career vs. Braves: 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 42 K and 29 BB in 17 games (14 starts).
Wilson: 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 7.0 BB/9 in 7 2/3 IP over 4 relief appearances.
- This will be Wilson's first start of 2020 and just the sixth start of his career.
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Marlins at Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 2B Logan Forsythe (oblique) out
- 2B Isan Diaz (groin) out
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
- OF Magneuris Sierra (hamstring) out
Braves
- SP Cole Hamels (shoulder) out
Marlins at Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:07 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 10, Marlins 5
Money line (ML)
This might be a little nitty of me as the poker players would say but I am going to PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because it's too expensive for me.
Urena wasn't terrible in his only outing against the Braves (-168) this season and the Marlins (+150) are 3-4 against Atlanta, so they can certainly pull off an upset.
I like the Braves enough to put money on it but I'd prefer to chase the value of the run line.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BRAVES -1.5 (+115) is the bet I am looking to make in this game. Atlanta's lineup scores the most runs per game, hits for the second-best average and has the highest OPS in MLB.
The Marlins +1.5 (-139) have a bottom-10 pitching staff in those same categories and Urena struggles historically against Atlanta. This Braves lineup slashes .319/.399/.556 against him and MVP-contender 1B Freddie Freeman slashes .429/.515/1.071 with 4 home runs and 11 RBI in 28 at-bats versus Urena.
BET BRAVES -1.5 (+115).
New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Braves -1.5 (+115) pays a $115 profit if Atlanta beats Miami by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Wilson's numbers aren't great and this is just a fill-in start for an injured Cole Hamels. His stats on the record aren't inspiring and we've already discussed how awesome Atlanta's lineup is.
The Braves have the fourth-highest Over percentage in MLB (55.1%) and the Marlins are sixth (54.7%). In division games, Atlanta has the second- and Miami has the third-highest Over percentage behind the Washington Nationals (another NL East team).
These NL East games are slugfests. Marlins-Braves is going OVER 9.5 (-110).
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