New York Mets at Washington Nationals odds, picks and best bets
The New York Mets (26-31) are in the nation's capital to play the Washington Nationals (23-34) in the second game of a four-game series at National Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mets-Nationals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: New York leads 4-3.
Playoff picture: The Mets are three games back of the San Francisco Giants for the 8th and final seed in the NL postseason with three games to play. The Nationals are eliminated from postseason contention.
Mets at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Rick Porcello vs. RHP Max Scherzer
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Porcello: 1-6 with a 5.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 20): Loss, 7-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 10 K and 2 BB versus the Atlanta Braves.
- Career vs. Nationals: 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 20 K and 3 BB in 27 IP over 4 starts.
Scherzer: 4-4 with a 3.67 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 61 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 20): Loss, 2-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 runs (0 earned), 6 K and 2 BB at the Miami Marlins.
- Career vs. Mets: 11-5 with a 2.63 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 191 K and 34 BB in 144 IP over 23 games (22 starts).
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Mets at Nationals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Mets
- OF Michael Conforto (hamstring) out
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- OF Adam Eaton (finger) out
- 2B Howie Kendrick (hamstring) out
- SS Carter Kieboom (hand) out
Mets at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Nationals 5, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
The Mets (+125) have beaten Washington in three consecutive meetings, including a 3-2 win Thursday. The Nationals' (-139) last victory over New York was a 2-1 win in Scherzer's last start against the Mets (Aug. 11).
The Nationals might be out of it but they still have a former Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer on the mound looking to end 2020 on a good note.
Porcello looked great in his last start despite holding an L and even had a good outing in his two other 2020 starts against Washington. Everyone is down on the Nationals, and rightfully so, because of cluster injuries and them not being able to replicate their 2019 championship form.
That's why we are getting such a pro-Washington number here. TAKE NATIONALS (-139) on the money line.
New to sports betting? A $139 bet on the Nationals (-139) earns a $100 profit if Washington beats New York.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Nationals -1.5 (+140) have significantly underperformed compared to expectations as evident in their 3-11 run line record as a home favorite. The Mets +1.5 (-167) are 8-6 on the run line as a road underdog and have covered the RL in five of their seven games against the Nationals this season.
Washington's lineup is above average in several categories but its injury report has me PASSING ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the total bet to make. Again Porcello has pitched great in both of his starts against Washington and I am not wasting any more words talking up Scherzer, his resume speaks for itself.
I would be pounding the table and yelling "Under" if the Nationals didn't have the highest Over percentage in division games in the league. That, plus the Over being 10-4-1 in the last 15 Mets-Nationals games has ballooned the total higher than it should be.
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