Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers odds, picks and prediction
The Indiana Pacers (21-24) host the Miami Heat (23-24) Wednesday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Pacers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami snapped a six-game losing skid (0-6 against the spread) by beating the New York Knicks 98-88 Monday. Two of those losses were in back-to-back games against the Pacers March 19 and 21.
Indiana has won four of its last six games (3-3 ATS) but was beaten 132-124 by a Bradley Beal-less Washington Wizards as a 7-point road favorite Monday.
Both teams are currently in position for the play-in tournament with the Heat eighth in the Eastern Conference and the Pacers ninth.
Heat at Pacers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line : Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Pacers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS : Heat -1.5 (-115) | Pacers +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under : 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Pacers: Key injuries
Heat
- PG Kendrick Nunn (ankle) questionable
- SG Victor Oladipo (illness) out
Pacers
- SG Jeremy Lamb (toe) questionable
- SF Doug McDermott (ankle) questionable
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Heat at Pacers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 112, Pacers 108
Money line (ML)
Miami swept Indiana in the first round of last season's Eastern Conference playoffs and this game should have a postseason-type intensity since the first two meetings this season were recent.
The Pacers' offense has been far more efficient since SG Caris LeVert joined the lineup but the Heat match up with them too well to lose the season series 3-0.
Indiana has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the nine games with LeVert in the starting five but Miami is 5th in fast-break points allowed per game.
Also, the Pacers attempt the most shots within five feet of the basket and the Heat are eighth in defensive field-goal percentage on attempts within five feet.
Finally, if this game is going to be close-which BetMGM is projecting-then I'm fading an Indiana team with the 3rd-worst net rating in clutch situations.
BET HEAT (-125) for 1 unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because it's only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive to get the money line so let's just stick with an outright Heat win.
This is a bad spot for Indiana who has the 2nd-fewest covers at home (6-14 ATS) and is 2-7 ATS at home vs. losing teams.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS since my predicted score is aligned with BetMGM's projection so there's no value in me betting the total.
That being said, I LEAN Over 218.5 (-110) because Indiana has the 2nd-best assist-to-turnover rate, 12th-best effective field-goal percentage and is 11th in offensive rating since LeVert made his team debut nine games ago.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin' Podcast : 2021 MLB American League Betting Preview
- Hoops Hyperumors : Pacers | Heat
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