Boston Red Sox at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction
The Boston Red Sox (14-9) begin a two-game interleague set on the road against the New York Mets (9-8) Tuesday. The first pitch will be thrown at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Red Sox vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Garrett Richards is set for his fifth start of the season for the BoSox. He is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 7.0 BB/9.
- Allowing a career-worst 47.4% hard-hit rate and 91.1 exit velocity.
- Was roughed up for 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 6 walks in just 4 2/3 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays last time out.
Mets LHP David Peterson is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 3 starts.
- The second-year starter is allowing more hard contact and fly balls than he did as a rookie in 2020.
- Struck out 10 with no walks and allowed just 1 earned run on a solo homer in a win over the Philadelphia Phillies April 14 but was touched up for 6 runs (3 earned) in 3 1/3 IP last time out against the Chicago Cubs.
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Red Sox at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Mets 5
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox closed as underdogs just seven times through 23 games and won six of those. They're also a strong 38-15 in their last 53 games in a National League park.
On a game level, the Red Sox have been faring much better against LHP of late after a slow start in the split and own MLB's sixth-best team OPS against southpaws at .795.
The Mets make hard contact on just 32.2% of balls in play against righties with a fly-ball rate of 29.9% and are ill-equipped to take advantage of Richards' greatest weaknesses.
Bet RED SOX (+130) to pull the upset.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The RED SOX +1.5 (-160) should also be backed with the run of insurance.
Boston has the edge in the bullpen battle with a 3.29 group ERA to New York's 4.31 reliever ERA. The Red Sox 'pen also strands more base runners and is doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park.
Over/Under (O/U)
Bet the OVER 8.5 (-110).
Both starters have been roughed up early this season and the Red Sox offense should provide the bulk of the scoring in the splits.
I also like the 2 or more runs (+230) 1st-inning line. Richards has allowed at least 1 earned run in the first inning in three of his four starts this season and Peterson has struggled in his first pass through the opponent's batting order over his young career.
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