Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

The Atlanta Braves (12-14) play the Toronto Blue Jays (12-12) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game interleague set at Toronto's 2021 home field of TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Braves vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Toronto trampled Atlanta 13-5 in Game 1 of the series, with the Blue Jays hitting six dingers. C Alejandro Kirk went 2-for-4 with 2 HR and 4 RBIs.

Season series: Blue Jays 1-0.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starter for the Braves Saturday. He is 2-1 with a 4.76 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 5 starts.

• Last outing: Win in 5 1/3 IP with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Atlanta's 8-7 victory over the Chicago Cubs Monday.
• Career vs. the Blue Jays: 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 7 starts.

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LHP Travis Bergen gets the start Saturday as the opener of a bullpen day for the Blue Jays. This will be Bergen's first start in his three years in the majors and he has never faced the Braves.

Bergen is 3-0 for his career with a 4.66 ERA (29 IP, 15 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 30 relief appearances.

The scuttlebutt is that either RHP Trent Thornton or LHP Tommy Milone will relieve Bergen after short work.

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Braves at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Blue Jays +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+110) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 9, Blue Jays 4

Money line (ML)

There's some value in BRAVES (-135) due to how big of a whooping they got last night from the Blue Jays and Morton's stuff has been sharper than his basic stats indicate.

For instance, Morton has a 4.76 ERA but a 3.39 FIP and his ground-ball to fly-ball rate is more than twice as high as the MLB average.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Morton in the 73rd percentile of whiff%, and 69th percentile in both K% and barrel%.

Also, the Blue Jays having a bullpen day isn't them leaning into a strength, rather Toronto having to come up with something in place of starter Hyun Jin Ryu (glute) being on the injured list.

Toronto's bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and hard-hit rate. The Blue Jays lineup is also mediocre in several advanced hitting categories against right-handed pitching.

GIMME BRAVES (-135) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+110) is a measly payout and I'd rather play it safe by taking Atlanta to win outright.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Over 10.5 (-115) because my read is Atlanta's lineup has a big day against Toronto's bullpen.

That being said, I'm betting on Morton dealing this evening and I don't think the Blue Jays' lineup will do a lot of damage.

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