Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

The Boston Red Sox (17-10) take on the Texas Rangers (11-16) Saturday in Game 3 of their four-game series at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston beat Texas 6-1 Friday, thanks to DH J.D. Martinez's 3-for-4 performance with 2 HR and 4 RBIs.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is making his fifth start for the Red Sox. He is 4-0 with a 3.52 ERA (23 IP, 9 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9.

• Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Boston's 5-3 win vs. the Seattle Mariners Sunday.
• Career vs. Rangers: 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 in 4 starts.

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RHP Jordan Lyles takes the mound for the Rangers. He is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA (24 IP, 18 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 5 starts.

• Last outing: Loss in 2 2/3 IP with 7 ER, 10 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Texas' 9-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Monday.
• Career vs. Red Sox: 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.07 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 in 2 starts (the last start was 2013).

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Red Sox at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Red Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
• Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (-115) | Rangers +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Rangers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Red Sox (-190) only because I'd prefer to find ways of betting Boston without spending a lot on vig.

Truthfully, I'll be pairing Boston's money line with another similarly priced favorite, such as the San Diego Padres (-190), for a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Since I love the starting pitching matchup for Boston, I'm looking for ways to get my money down on Rodriguez vs. Lyles.

The way I'm going to go about this is by BETTING RED SOX -0.5 (-125) for 1 unit for the FIRST 5 INNINGS. Don't get me wrong, Red Sox -1.5 (-115) is a fine play on the full-game line but Boston's starter has a massive edge Saturday.

Rodriguez has been even better than his basic pitching numbers indicate. For instance, his FIP is lower than his ERA and Statcast grades Rodriguez in the 85th percentile in exit velocity, 96th percentile in BB% and 84th percentile in expected wOBA.

Also, not only does Rodriguez have Cy Young-caliber stuff, but the Rangers lineup is one of the worst in the majors. Texas is in the bottom-5 in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitchers.

Lastly, Boston's lineup is top-5 in several advanced hitting categories such as wOBA, wRC+, OPS and hard-hit rate, and Lyles leads the majors in earned runs allowed.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS on the total because Texas' bullpen is top-10 in xFIP and SIERA and we could see the Rangers relievers early in this game if Boston's lineup roughs up Lyles.

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