NBA

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Denver Nuggets (42-21) drop by Staples Center Saturday for their regular-season rubber match against the Los Angeles Clippers (43-21). Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Denver has won four straight games and eight of its last nine games but is only 4-5 against the spread (ATS) in those contests.

The Nuggets are still in contention for home-court advantage throughout the postseason, as they are just 3 games back of the Western Conference's first-place Utah Jazz with nine games remaining.

L.A., is a half-game in front of Denver despite dealing with injury issues all season. The Clippers lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and are just 2-4 ATS over the past two weeks.

These teams split their first two regular-season meetings with the road team winning and covering each game. This is a budding rivalry since the Nuggets came back from a 3-1 series deficit to stun the Clippers in last season's Western Conference Semifinals.

Nuggets at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.

Money line : Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Clippers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS : Nuggets +4.5 (-110) | Clippers -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under : 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Nuggets at Clippers: Key injuries

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
SG Will Barton (hamstring) out
PG Monte Morris (hamstring) out

Clippers

SF Kawhi Leonard (foot) questionable
PG Patrick Beverley (hand) out
PF Serge Ibaka (back) out

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Nuggets at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nuggets 113, Clippers 108

Money line (ML)

Slight "LEAN" to the NUGGETS (+155) because Leonard's game status is still up in the air and each team is in the top-5 of net rating but Denver has played better against quality competition than L.A.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets are 10-8 with the fifth-best net points per 100 possessions and the fourth-best ATS margin vs. teams in the top-10 of net rating. The Clippers are 10-10 with the sixth-best net points per 100 possessions and the 19th-best ATS margin in those spots

Also, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets attempt the ninth-highest volume of mid-range field goals and the Clippers are 19th in defensive field-goal percentage on mid-range attempts.

Furthermore, L.A., is the top 3-point shooting team in the Association but Denver is ninth in defensive 3-point percentage.

If Leonard plays, I'm for sure passing on Denver's money line, but at the moment, I'll sprinkle on the NUGGETS (+155).

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Against the spread (ATS)

BET NUGGETS +4.5 (-110) for 1 unit for the aforementioned reasons and because Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with L.A., going back to last season's playoffs.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 222.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit because both teams are in the bottom-5 of pace, the Under is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 road games and 4-0 in L.A.'s last four overall.

I wouldn't bet the Under too hard in Nuggets-Clippers, however, because Denver is sixth in effective field-goal percentage and L.A., is third.

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