NBA

New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The New Orleans Pelicans (28-35) drop by Target Center Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game with the Minnesota Timberwolves (20-44). Below, we analyze the Pelicans-Timberwolves odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

NOLA has alternated between winning and losing in each of its last six games (4-2 against the spread) with the latest being a 109-95 win Thursday over the tanking Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Pelicans as the 11-seed are on the outside looking into the playoff picture, 3 games behind the 10th-place Golden State Warriors for the final spot in the play-in event.

Minnesota has won four in a row and five of its past six games (5-0-1 ATS) including back-to-back wins over the first-place Utah Jazz and a 126-114 whooping of the Golden State Warriors Thursday.

The T-Wolves are going for the season sweep after winning and covering both of the first two meetings with the Pelicans-one home and one away.

Pelicans at Timberwolves: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

Money line : Pelicans -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Timberwolves +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Against the spread/ATS : Pelicans -3.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under : 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pelicans at Timberwolves: Key injuries

Pelicans

C Steven Adams (toe) out
SG Josh Hart (thumb) out
SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) out

Timberwolves

SG Malik Beasley (hamstring) out

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Pelicans at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Timberwolves 122, Pelicans 114

Money line (ML)

Slight "LEAN" to the TIMBERWOLVES (+135) for a quarter unit because I "like" Minnesota plus the points and want to maximize some value by sprinkling on the underdog's money line.

T-Wolves big Karl-Anthony Towns should have a monster night since Adams is sidelined with an injury.

For his career, KAT is averaging 22.4 points per game on 60.5% true shooting (.513/.460/.836) with 12.6 rebounds per game in 16 meetings with the Pelicans.

Also, the injuries to NOLA's guards combined with the steady development of Minnesota's No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards gives the T-Wolves the edge in the backcourt.

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Against the spread (ATS)

This type of game has been a "bad spot" for the Pelicans all season long. NOLA has a losing ATS record as a road team, is 0-4 ATS when laying between 3-4.5 points and 7-8 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record.

Furthermore, the T-Wolves are 10-3-1 ATS when getting 3-4.5 points, 8-6 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing record and 14-12 ATS as a home dog this season.

Definitely BET TIMBERWOLVES +3.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of Minnesota's money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS since my predicted score aligns with BetMGM's projected total for Pelicans-Timberwolves.

If anything, I "lean" to the Over 235.5 (-110) because three of the last four and 14 of the last 20 Pelicans-Timberwolves games have gone Over the total.

The rationale for this is simple: Both teams have firepower on offense and each plays matador defense.

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