Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction

The Cleveland Indians (13-13) visit the AL Central rival Kansas City Royals (16-10) Monday for a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Indians vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland won its second straight series yesterday after shutting out the Chicago White Sox 5-0 in the rubber match.

The Indians beat the Minnesota Twins 3-1 in a four-game series last week and have won five of their past seven games.

Kansas City dropped two of three against Minnesota over the weekend but have won seven of its past 10 games.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Aaron Civale gets the nod for the Indians. Civale is 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 5 starts.

• Last outing: Win in 7 2/3 IP with 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Kansas City's 7-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins Tuesday.
• Career vs. the Royals: 0-1 in 6 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in 1 start last season.
• Vs. Royals on the current roster: 16 at-bats with a .375/.412/.625 slash line, 1 HR and 2 RBIs.

LHP Daniel Lynch makes his MLB debut for the Royals. The 24-year-old lefty was the No. 34 overall pick in the 2018 June Amateur Draft and is the No. 2 prospect in the Royals' organization.

Lynch spent two years in the minor leagues (2018-19) and had an 11-3 record with a 2.50 ERA (147 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 37 BB and 157 K.

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Indians at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Indians +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Royals -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-190) | Royals -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Royals 4, Indians 3

Money line (ML)

There are a few reasons why I'm on the ROYALS (+115) for a three-fourths unit.

First, Cleveland's lineup is in the bottom-third in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS vs. left-handed pitching and the Indians have a losing record against lefty starters.

Second, this is a "Pros vs. Joes" situation in the betting market with more money being bet on Kansas City's money line while more actual bets have been placed on Cleveland, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it's more profitable to follow the money rather than a crowd of people.

Finally, the Royals had success against Civale in their first meeting last season and Kansas City's lineup is 10th in wRC+ and wOBA and ninth in OPS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Royals +1.5 (-175) is too pricey for the insurance.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a quarter unit because Civale is becoming another success story of the Cleveland organization's pitcher factory, Lynch is a highly-touted prospect, and Cleveland hitters struggle vs. lefties.

Furthermore, the Under has cashed five of the previous Royals-Indians meetings and the weather forecast is predicting 14 MPH winds blowing inward.

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