Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays (20-16) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-18) for a three-game weekend set at their temporary 2021 home of TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla. Friday's first pitch will be thrown at 7:37 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) makes his fifth start of the season to go with 3 relief appearances. He owns a 1.48 WHIP with 11.4 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 through 23 2/3 innings.
- Allowing a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 28.8% fly-ball rate.
- Held the Atlanta Braves to just one solo home run over 5 1/3 innings Saturday while taking a no-decision in the Phillies' 8-7 loss.
Blue Jays LHP Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA) gets his eighth start of the year. The offseason addition has a 1.27 WHIP with 9.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
- Pitched to a 1.47 ERA while going 3-0 through his first 3 starts of the season. Has since pitched to an 8.20 ERA with 5 home runs allowed over 18 2/3 innings across his last 4 outings.
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Phillies at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Blue Jays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-150) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The BLUE JAYS (-150) are coming off a series sweep of the Atlanta Braves on the road and are the play Friday as they begin their first extended homestand of the season.
Matz has the advantage in the starting pitching matchup as he goes up against a Phillies lineup striking out in 29.1% of plate appearances against left-handers for the fourth-worst rate in the majors. The Blue Jays have baseball's 10th-best team OPS against right-handed pitching.
The Blue Jays have also hit .271/.325/.454 as a team while outscoring the opposition 52-37 across a 6-2 run over their last eight games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Better value lies with backing the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+125) to win by 2 or more runs.
The Phillies offense is without SS Didi Gregorius (elbow) and C J.T. Realmuto (COVID-19 list). Both bullpens tote a 4.08 ERA, but Toronto relievers allow fewer walks and home runs and strand a higher percentage of base runners.
Over/Under (O/U)
Lean to the OVER 10 (-110) in a heavy fade of Velasquez and with regression coming for both relief corps. The Blue Jays are without five key relievers.
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