Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction
The Los Angeles Dodgers (21-17) face the Miami Marlins (17-21) for the second of a three-game set in Dodger Stadium at 9:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Marlins with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. chased Miami's starter, Sandy Alcantara, early last night in the 9-6 victory. The Dodgers scored eight earned runs on seven hits, two walks and one home run in just 1 1/3 innings pitched for Alcantara.
Season series: Dodgers 1-0.
RHP Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Dodgers. Bauer is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 across 8 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Los Angeles Angels Sunday.
- Career vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 2 starts (last start 2019).
- Vs. Marlins on the current roster: 39 at-bats with a .231/.333/.410 slash line, 17/4 K/BB, 2 HR and 7 RBIs.
Miami hasn't officially announced its starter, but FanGraphs and RotoWire are projecting RHP Jordan Holloway for the Marlins.
Holloway made his first Major League start Monday at the Arizona Diamondbacks. He picked up a loss in 3 2/3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 1 strikeout in Miami's 5-2 defeat to the D-Backs.
Holloway has only made one start and six relief appearances but is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA (14 IP, 3 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 since making his MLB debut in 2020.
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Dodgers at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Marlins +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -2.5 (+115) | Marlins +2.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 3, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
Slight "LEAN" to the MARLINS (+250) for a quarter unit if at all because I "lean" to Miami on the run line, and this number is too juicy given how good the Marlins bullpen is and how average Bauer has been vs. Miami.
Bauer's numbers against current Marlins hitters have been so-so, but his advanced pitching numbers tell a slightly different story. For instance, Bauer has a subpar 5.17 FIP and fat .388 wOBA against Miami batters.
I'd assume the Marlins are going to rely heavily on their relievers today since they are yet to announce a starter and Miami has one of the better bullpens in the MLB.
The Marlins' relievers rank sixth in both SIERA and K-BB%, 10th in xFIP, seventh in left-on-base percentage and ninth in WAR. All these marks are higher than L.A.'s bullpen.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Miami is a ball club I'd buy stock in because the Marlins have a minus-3 luck factor, which in this case means poor luck has cost them three games and the Marlins have a plus-11 run differential this season.
"LEAN" to the MARLINS +1.5 (+130)ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a half unit because we are still getting insurance but with a plus-money payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because the Dodgers are 3-5 O/U in games Bauer starts, and the Marlins have gone Under in four straight when facing a right-handed starter.
Miami's path to victory is a low-scoring game in which L.A.'s bullpen adds to its lead in blown saves (12), and the Marlins steal one in the late innings.
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