Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction
The Chicago Cubs (18-20) and Detroit Tigers (14-25) wrap up their three-game interleague set Sunday at Comerica Park with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cubs vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match as Detroit evened the series in a seesaw 8-7 extra-innings victory Saturday. Chicago won Friday 4-2.
Season series: Tied 1-1
RHP Kyle Hendricks is the projected starter for the Cubs. Hendricks is 2-4 with a 6.23 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-5, in 5 IP with 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 3 K vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates May 9.
- Career vs. the Tigers: 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA (12 IP, 5 ER). 1.58 WHIP and 3.8 K/9 in 2 starts in 2018.
- Vs. Tigers on the current roster: 47 at-bats with a .234/.294/.404 slash line, 12/2 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
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LHP Matthew Boyd is on the rubber for the Tigers. Boyd is 2-3 with a 1.94 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 9 ER). 0.94 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Detroit's 8-7 win against the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Cubs: 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA (2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0 BB and 0 K in 1 relief appearance (2015).
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Cubs at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Tigers +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Cubs 8, Tigers 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the CUBS (-145) for 1 unit because Hendricks is due for a bounce-back effort and I like the Cubs chances of hitting Boyd. Even if they can't, the Tigers bullpen could give the game back.
Hendricks' ERA is 3.01 higher this season compared to his career average of 3.22 ERA, but he has shown signs of life.
Hendricks has alternated between quality starts and duds over his past six games with his latest start being a poor outing.
I'm willing to follow that zig-zag trend of Hendricks' form, especially against this Detroit lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting categories.
Also, the Cubs hit much better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and the top of their order could be in for a big afternoon.
C Willson Contreras has a 171 wRC+ (100 is the MLB average), .428 wOBA and 44.4% hard-hit rate vs. lefties, and 3B Kris Bryant has a 322 wRC+, .663 wOBA and 57.9% hard-hit rate.
Lastly, the Tigers need a long outing from Boyd because their bullpen is dreadful. Detroit's bullpen has the fifth-worst xFIP, third-worst SIERA, the most home runs per nine innings and the lowest WAR.
In fact, Boyd turned his previous start over to Detroit's bullpen ahead 7-0 before the relievers gave up seven runs in the last two innings to blow Boyd's would-be victory.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Cubs -1.5 (+115) isn't juicy enough given how on and off Hendricks has been all season long and how good Boyd has looked thus far.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight "LEAN" to the OVER 8 (-110) for a quarter unit because these teams have a combined 9-5 O/U record when these starters are on the mound. If Boyd isn't sharp, then it could be a long day for Detroit's pitching staff.
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