New York Mets at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction
The New York Mets (20-16) and Atlanta Braves (19-23) close out a three-game series Wednesday at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP David Peterson is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 in 33 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
In this start at Atlanta, he's up against a Braves club scuffling of late (.681 OPS last two weeks) and one swung around to its lesser platoon splits (.671 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers). Peterson logged 12 strong innings against Atlanta last season (.426 OPS allowed).
RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 in 39 IP over 8 starts.
Morton is coming off back-to-back wonky efforts. In a combined 5 1/3 IP over those starts (against the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays), the veteran righty coughed up 15 base runners (11 hits, 4 walks).
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The left lean of the Mets offense (61% of plate appearances vs. right-handed pitchers) is a potential problem area for Morton who has seen lefty bats post a .783 OPS against him over his career.
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Mets at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mets 5, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
The Mets have taken the first two games of this series and are 9-3 over their last 12 games. Atlanta is in a good fade spot: the Braves are underperforming on expectations, and they are outperforming their support metrics.
Overall. New York's offense has been worse than the worst of the season for the Braves (the last couple of weeks).
But Peterson is in a good spot here, and he's backed by the much better bullpen in this matchup. Most importantly, the price here is quite attractive.
BACK THE METS (+155).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With the low total and both teams playing more than their share of low-scoring games so far, a METS +1.5 (-135) is workable for bettors looking for a bit of insurance.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both offenses have underperformed against their Statcast metrics; in other words, their quality of contact is outpacing their run production. But both starters figure as better than their surface ERAs.
With a forecasted breeze helping the pitchers, the total here is just 7.5. Tag the Over with a slight lean but probably not an actionable one.
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