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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

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The Atlanta Braves (24-26) host the Washington Nationals (21-28) on Memorial Day for Game 1 of a four-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington was swept in a three-game series by the Milwaukee Brewers this past weekend. The Nationals lost four of their last 5 games and are just 4-6 in their previous 10.

Atlanta has played only one game since Wednesday-a 13-2 loss to the New York Mets Saturday-because two games of the three-game set in New York were rained out. The Braves are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Season series: Braves lead 5-1.

RHP Joe Ross makes his 10th start for the Nationals. He is 2-4 with a 5.19 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this season.

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  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Washington's 5-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday.
  • Career vs. Braves: 1-4 with a 6.43 ERA (35 IP, 25 ER), 1.74 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 across seven starts and one relief appearance.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 79 at-bats with a .316/.407/.544 slash line, 17/12 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA (52 IP, 23 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 across 10 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Boston Red Sox Tuesday.
  • Career vs. Nationals: 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.55 WHIP and 6.0 K/9 over 10 starts.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 81 at-bats with a .247/.291/.383 slash line, 16/4 K/BB, 3 HR and 14 RBIs.

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Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 8, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

BET the BRAVES (-175) for 1 unit because I'm optimistic Morton starts to pitch like a top of the rotation starter and either way, Atlanta has the edge in the pitching and hitting matchups.

Morton has thrown back-to-back quality starts entering Memorial Day and his ERA estimators (SIERA and xFIP) are slightly lower than his actual ERA, which typically indicates a pitcher's basic stats will improve.

Furthermore, Morton's advanced pitching numbers vs. Washington's lineup are far better than Ross' vs. Atlanta.

For example, Morton has a 4.19 FIP, .215 expected wOBA, .225 expected slugging percentage and 83.4 mph exit velocity against Nationals on the current roster. Ross has a 7.25 FIP, .437 wOBA, .613 expected slugging percentage and 91.0 mph exit velocity vs. these Braves hitters.

Also, Atlanta's lineup is in the top-10 vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K rate and hard-hit rate. Washington's lineup is worse in all those categories and in the bottom-10 of MLB against righties in wRC+ and BB/K rate.

Finally, I'd entertain parlaying Atlanta's money line with the New York Mets (-175) with RHP Jacob deGrom on the mound for a plus-money payout as a "Memorial Day special".

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I "lean" Braves winning at -175 and my buy-price on Atlanta's run line is around +140, which it is not.

Three of the six Nationals-Braves meetings this season were decided by a single run and Atlanta has a 6-19 run line record as a home favorite this year.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight "LEAN" to the OVER 8.5 (-120) for a quarter unit only because the presumed "sharp" side of the market is backing the Under while the "public" is backing the Over, according to Pregame.com.

However, because Washington's bullpen is bad, Ross has been getting raked recently (6.96 ERA over his last seven starts) and Atlanta's well-rested lineup should be ready to drill both.

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