Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction
The Boston Red Sox (32-22) and Houston Astros (30-24) play the third contest of their four-game series Wednesday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park (on ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 6-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 53 2/3 IP over 10 starts. Pivetta has yielded 8 ER over his last 11 IP.
LHP Framber Valdez is the projected starter for the Astros. Valdez made his season debut Friday after suffering a fractured finger during spring training. Valdez made 72 pitches and went 4 innings, allowing 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks. He logged a 3.57 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 70 2/3 IP a year ago.
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Red Sox at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:59 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 4, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
Houston has been undone somewhat by a 4-7 mark in 1-run games and figures as better overall than its current won-loss record. The Astros have taken the first two games of this series and tote an overall three-game win streak into Wednesday's contest.
Peg Pivetta as a slight fade candidate to begin with, and he's up against an Astros nine which owns a robust .776 OPS at home. The Boston right-hander has a history of June swoons (.864 OPS allowed in June) after being solid early. On Wednesday, he's backed by the more fatigued of the two bullpens. That's key because he has a history of being hit hard the third time through an order (.876 OPSA-career, 1.008 OPSA-2021)
Valdez has a solid history against righty bats, and that's key when facing the Red Sox.
BACK THE ASTROS -145.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Boston has an advantage in the bullpen comparison (fatigue issue aside). PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Statcast quality-of-contact figures peg the Red Sox offense as being a bit overcooked at 5.0 runs per game. There isn't much expected runs-vs.-runs slack above and beyond that, save for a bit against Pivetta as the Boston starter.
Consider an UNDER 9 (-115), and play early because there appears to be downward pressure on that -115 price.
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