Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction
The Washington Nationals (22-29) clash with the Atlanta Braves (25-27) Wednesday in Game 3 of their four-game series at Truist Park. First pitch will be at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington evened this series Tuesday with an 11-6 win as Nationals OF Juan Soto went 3-for-4 with a home run, four runs scored and four RBIs.
Season series: Braves lead 6-2.
LHP Jon Lester is getting his seventh start for the Nationals. He is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Washington's 6-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday.
- Career vs. Braves: 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA (75 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 across 12 starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 138 at-bats with a .239/.286/.457 slash line, 37/8 K/BB, 8 HR and 17 RBIs.
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LHP Drew Smyly is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 2-3 with a 5.95 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over eight starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 5 1/3 IP with 7 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday.
- Career vs. Nationals: 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA (20 IP, 4 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 across three starts and one relief appearance.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 75 at-bats with a .267/.345/.480 slash line, 18/8 K/BB, 4 HR and 5 RBIs.
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Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Nationals 5, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the NATIONALS (+135) for three-fourths of a unit because Washington's run line is a smarter play. The Nationals are the right side because they have a slight edge in these hitters vs. starters matchups and the market report is showing "reverse line movement".
Washington's lineup hits a smidge better vs. left-handed pitching than Atlanta's in several advanced hitting metrics such as hard-contact percentage, wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Also, Lester's advanced pitching numbers against these Nationals batters are also a little better than Smyly's vs. the Braves.
For example, Lester has a 3.86 FIP, .282 wOBA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 85.2 mph exit velocity vs. Washington's current roster. Smyly has a 5.24 FIP, .354 wOBA, 21.7% strikeout rate and 90.9 mph exit velocity against Atlanta's current roster.
Finally, nearly 85% of the bets are on the Braves (-165), according to Pregame.com, but most books have brought Atlanta's money line down to -145 and I'd expect BetMGM to follow suit.
Typically, it's a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper in sports betting.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Smyly has two quality starts against the Nationals this season. That rules out Washington's First 5 Innings run line and Nationals +1.5 (-140) for the full game prices me out.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 9.5 (-105) for a quarter unit mostly because the market is so overwhelmingly behind the Over in this spot and my instinct is to fade lopsided sports betting markets. Also, the Under cashed in five of the past six Nationals-Braves meetings.
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