Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction
The Boston Red Sox (32-23) and Houston Astros (31-24) close out their four-game series Thursday. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Red Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Martin Perez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 3-2 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
Perez has been Mr. Consistent for the Crimson Hose of late. In 7 starts since April 18, the Boston lefty has gone 5 or more innings six times and he's allowed fewer than 3 ER six times.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starter for the Astros. In 4 starts, Odorizzi is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 in 13 1/3 IP.
Thursday's game marks his second start after a stint on the IL (forearm). In his Saturday return, Odorizzi went 5 1/3 IP, holding the Padres to 1 ER on 3 hits.
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Red Sox at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 4, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
The Astros have taken the first three games of this series and tote an overall four-game win streak into Thursday's contest.
Houston's .779 OPS at home ranks sixth in MLB, and the Astros are at their best against left-handers (.787 OPS). Odorizzi's second start back figures to bring on some early fatigue to fight through, but there is enough play-the-Astros-fade-the-Red Sox bent to this one that makes the HOUSTON -140 price attractive enough.
Consider a partial-unit play in this, and many other MLB games, when there is some question of a starter's fitness.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line as the win-by-one is hurdle enough.
Over/Under (O/U)
Statcast quality-of-contact figures peg the Red Sox offense as being a bit overcooked at 5.0 runs per game. Boston bats, in fact, have produced just 3.0 runs per game with a .589 OPS over the team's last 8 games. There isn't much expected runs-vs.-runs slack above and beyond that, but the UNDER 9 (-105) has a slight lean on this get-away day.
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