New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

The New York Mets (27-21) and San Diego Padres (34-23) meet for the first time since 2019 when they open a four-game series Thursday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven games, recently taking two of three at the Arizona Diamondbacks. They won Wednesday's rubber match 7-6 after losing Tuesday 6-5 in 10 innings.

The Padres are happy to return home after a 4-6 road trip, which concluded with a 6-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs Wednesday. The defeat was a season-high fourth in a row for the Friars. The Padres started the trip 4-2 but they lost at the Houston Astros Sunday and were swept in three at Wrigley Field.

RHP Taijuan Walker is projected to start for the Mets Thursday. He is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA (49 IP, 10 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 9 starts and this season.

• Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 13-2 rout of visiting Atlanta Braves Saturday
• Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 1.33 ERA (27 IP, 4 ER), 0.59 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 5 starts

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RHP Yu Darvish is the Padres' projected starter. Last season's NL Cy Young Award runner-up (to Trevor Bauer) is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 11 starts.

• Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K at Houston Astros Saturday - Padres won 11-8 in 12 innings
• Career vs. Mets: 2-0, 3.24 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.81 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 5 starts

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Mets at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:39 a.m. ET.

• Money line : Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS : Mets +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under : 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mets 3, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

NEW YORK (+ 155) is the STRONGEST PLAY - 1½ times your usual wager. There's great value in the Mets, who are 8-1 when Walker starts. In his last four outings, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA (22 IP, 1 ER).

The Padres are 10-1 in Darvish's starts, but they could be without SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (oblique strain), LF Tommy Pham (jaw) and IF Ha-Seong Kim (head). Tatis is day to day as is Kim, who collided with Pham on a fly ball in Wednesday's loss. They both exited after the incident with Pham requiring stitches.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

NEW YORK +1.5 (- 145) is worth a HALF-UNIT WAGER. The Mets are 12-4 ATS as underdogs this season, including 9-4 ATS as road dogs.

ATS records: Mets 22-26 | Padres 31-26

Over/Under (O/U)

O/U 6.5 (-115 | -105) is a bit low. If the line climbs to 7, bet UNDER for a QUARTER UNIT based on the starting pitchers and the Under being 17-11 at Petco Park this year. But at 6.5, it's a PASS.

O/U records: Mets 21-23-2 | Padres 29-27-1

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