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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Tampa Bay Rays (35-22) face the New York Yankees (31-25) in the final of their four-game series Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York has won two of the first three games of this series with a combined score of 10-9 through the set including a 4-3 victory Wednesday.

Season series: Rays 7-5.

LHP Ryan Yarbrough is on the mound for the Rays. Yarbrough is 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA (57 IP, 27 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 over 7 starts and 4 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K in Tampa Bay's 5-3 win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
  • Career vs. Yankees: 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 across 8 relief appearances.
    • vs. Yankees on the current roster: 93 at-bats with a .215/.305/.409 slash line, 19/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 9 RBIs.

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RHP Gerrit Cole makes his 12th for the Yankees. Cole is 6-2 with an AL-leading 1.78 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.84 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K in New York's 3-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers Friday.
  • Career vs. Rays: 1-4 with a 3.36 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 13.7 K/9 across 9 starts.
    • vs. Rays on the current roster: 221 at-bats with a .204/.255/.380 slash line, 90/12 K/BB, 9 HR and 22 RBIs.

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Rays at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-135) | Yankees -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

Prediction

Yankees 7, Rays 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because New York is just 6-5 when Cole starts and the Yankees (-190) implied win probability based on their money line is 65.36%. I.e. we are priced out of betting New York straight up here.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the YANKEES -0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because New York's lineup cannot be trusted to the damage needed for the Yankees to cover 1.5 runs on the full-game run line.

That being said, Cole is the best pitcher in the American League-he leads the AL in ERA and leads the majors in both FIP (1.73) and strikeouts per walk (10.8 K/BB)-so despite New York's terrible results in Cole outings, the Yankees are the right side here.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight "LEAN" to the OVER 7 (-125) for a quarter unit because Tampa Bay has a 7-0 O/U record in Yarbrough's seven starts this season.

Also, a majority of the action is on the Under here because most of the market is aware of New York's hitting struggles when Cole is on the bump, but in sports gambling a majority of the bettors don't cash tickets.

I'd only put a tiny wager on this though since Yarbrough is in the 95th percentile of hard-hit rate and 97th percentile in exit velocity, and has pretty good career numbers vs. New York.

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