Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction
The Washington Nationals (23-29) look for a third straight win when they take on the Atlanta Braves (25-28) Thursday at 12:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationalsvs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Patrick Corbin is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 3-4 with a 6.23 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 52 IP over 10 starts.
It has been an ugly year so far for Corbin, who has struck out just 18.1% of batters faced. He had recently shown some encouraging signs with more velocity and whiffs, but both his four-seamer and sinker were back down to 91 MPH in his last start.
LHP Tucker Davidson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is making just his second appearance of the season today.
In his first start, against the Mets on May 18th, he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP with 5 K and 1 BB. Davidson has made 3 starts at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he has a 0.90 ERA in 20 IP, along with 23 K.
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Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line : Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS : Nationals +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under : 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Braves 6, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The Braves rank 7th in the league in runs per game at home (5.23) and are facing a pitcher in Corbin that has been struggling for most of the year.
Davidson is facing a pretty tough task himself, as the Washington offense is 6th in wRC+ vs. LHP, and has hit better on the road (4.58 runs per game) than at home (3.36).
The Atlanta offense has been the more reliable of the two throughout the season and should give Davidson enough support in this one. Back the BRAVES -145.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Corbin had success with lower velocity back in 2018, but that season his Whiff% on his slider was 53.1%. This year, it's down to 38.3%.
Corbin looks like a poor bet to keep the Atlanta bats in check, and it wouldn't be surprising if they had a big day against him. A small wager on BRAVES -1.5 (+130) makes a lot of sense.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is 11-2-2 in Washington's last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and 7-3 in Atlanta's last 10 at home vs a lefty. Most signs point to these trends continuing on Thursday, so go with OVER 9.5 (-115).
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