Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction
The Cincinnati Reds (25-29) and St. Louis Cardinals (31-26) play Friday in the continuation of a four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch will be at 8:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 52 1/3 IP spanning 11 starts.
The 28-year-old right-hander has been struggling mightily, and his control problems are a big reason for the Boeing ERA. He logged a sub-3.50 ERA in three of his last four seasons.
LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is the projected starter for the Cardinals. He is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 through 37 IP over 8 starts.
Kim was solid against the Reds April 23. He allowed 1 ER over 5 2/3 innings while striking out a career-high 8 batters. Cincinnati is swung around to its lesser platoon splits against lefthanders with a .658 OPS. Cincy bats a higher percentage of lefty hitters against southpaws than average, and that plays into a strength for Kim.
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Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Reds 4, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
Cincinnati has allowed 5.4 runs per game which ranks last in MLB, and the bullpen has been a major culprit in those problems. However, both bullpens are exhibiting signals of different things on the horizon: better days for Cincy hurlers and bigger problems for Redbird twirlers.
Mix in a lean on the Reds underperforming so far and the Cardinals overperforming. Then throw in Castillo dealing with a .371 BABIP and a crazy-low 54.2% left-on-base rate.
TAKE CINCINNATI (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
A REDS +1.5 (-175) run-line play is worth a line watch. A -165 price would make for a solid insurance wager.
Over/Under (O/U)
Crisscrossing bullpen analytics and some batting indicators for both sides swing the total around 8.5 runs. Respect the public here and PASS.
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