Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction
The Houston Astros (31-25) and Toronto Blue Jays (29-25) begin a three-game set Friday at Toronto's temporary home of Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Astros RHP Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 7.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 1.13 WHIP over 73 2/3 innings. His 1.1 HR/9 is his highest rate since 2018.
- Exit velocity, hard-hit and fly-ball rates are below league average, but has allowed 9 HR through 12 starts
- Threw 8 innings of 1-run ball in a win over the San Diego Padres Sunday
Blue Jays LHP Hyun Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.62 ERA) draws the nod for his 11th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and AL-best 1.2 BB/9 through 58 1/3 IP.
- 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA over 30 2/3 IP spanning five starts since returning from the 10-day injured list due to a glute issue
- Went 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA over five starts at hitter-friendly Sahlen Field in 2020
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Astros at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:49 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-190) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
The BLUE JAYS (-125) are the play. They're 6-2 over their last eight games and had an off-day Thursday. The Astros are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox Thursday, in which they used four relievers for a total of 6 innings.
Toronto leads MLB with a .776 team OPS and .450 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. Greinke has been alternating good starts and bad; before Sunday's strong showing he allowed 4 runs over 6 innings in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank second to the Jays in OPS vs. RHP.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Give Toronto the edge in the pitching matchup and back the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+155) for extra profit.
The Astros have MLB's worst bullpen xFIP since May 15 at 5.02. The Blue Jays have the 23rd-ranked relief corps in that time with a 4.47 xFIP, but they at least have the rest advantage over the 'Stros.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 8.5 (-115) is the strongest play Friday, despite the seemingly strong starting pitching matchup.
The Jays' success against right-handed pitching was noted above, but the Astros are seventh by OPS (.777) and fourth by hard-contact percentage (32.2%) against left-handed pitching.
Additionally, these two bullpens have proved time and again the Over is never dead. Houston is 34-20-2 against the O/U for the season.
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