NBA

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds, picks and prediction

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The 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (2-3) visit the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks (3-2) Friday for Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Clippers-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Luka Doncic went off in Dallas' 105-100 Game 5 win, scoring or assisting on 31 of the Mavs' 37 baskets while finishing with 42 points, 8 rebounds and 14 assists.

On the other hand, Kawhi Leonard had his worst performance of the series in Game 5 with series' lows in points (20) and field goal shooting (36.8%).

The road team has won and covered the first five games of this series.

Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line : Clippers -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread/ATS : Clippers -3 (-110) | Mavericks +3 (-110)
Over/Under : 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Clippers at Mavericks: Key injuries

Clippers

PF Serge Ibaka (back) doubtful

Mavericks

PG Luka Doncic (neck) probable
PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles') probable
SG J.J. Redick (Achilles') out

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Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Clippers 112, Mavericks 105

Money line (ML)

I'll source the zig-zag theory and roll with the away team trend by BACKING the CLIPPERS (-150) for 1.25 units to send this series to a Game 7.

For whatever reason, neither team seems to be shaken by playing on their opponent's home floor, and the Mavs (+125) only beat the Clippers by five points in Game 5 despite Luka going HAM and Kawhi putting up a stinker.

Furthermore, L.A. has two guys it can count on to make an impact whereas Dallas only has one, and the Clippers are leading in three of the "four factors" in this series.

In fact, L.A. is averaging nearly three points more per game and has a plus-3.1 net rating in this series.

Also, the Mavs are scoring difficult baskets and in inconsistent ways. For instance, Dallas is scoring the fewest fast-break and paint points per game and the second-fewest points off of turnovers per game this postseason.

All in all, my read is that Kawhi has a bounce-back performance, Luka is a little less dominant and the Clippers will set up a Game 7 showdown for Sunday.

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Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I'd prefer to stick with L.A.'s money line rather than lay it with Clippers -3 (-110) I could see this coming down to the final possession even though none of the previous Clippers-Mavericks games have.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Under 216.5 (-105) because Clippers-Mavericks is the slowest-paced series in the postseason, and the market is backing the Over at nearly a 90% clip, according to Pregame.com.

For a Clippers-Mavericks game to play to the Over if they continue their snail's pace then the shooting has to be immaculate.

However, my hunch is we do see amazing offense in this must-win Game 6 hence the "pass" and my predicted score aligns with BetMGM's projected total.

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