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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Los Angeles Dodgers (33-23) meet the Atlanta Braves (26-28) in a rematch of the 2020 National League Championship Series Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 0-0.

LHP Julio Urías makes his 12th start for the Dodgers. He is 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA (67 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 IP with 6 ER, 11 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday against the San Francisco Giants.
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 0-0 with a 0 ER in 4 IP with 1 BB and 2 K in two relief appearances.
    • 2020 NLCS vs. Braves: 2-0 in 8 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in one start and one relief outing.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster (including playoffs): 38 at-bats with a .079/.167/.158 slash line, 10/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Ian Anderson takes the hill for the Braves. He is 4-2 with a 3.27 ERA (55 IP, 20 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts.

Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.

  • Last outing: Loss in 4 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K at the New York Mets Saturday.
  • Career vs. Dodgers: No regular-season appearances.
    • 2020 NLCS vs. Dodgers: 0-0 in 7 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 7 BB and 7 K over two starts.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster (including playoffs): 25 at-bats with a .200/.355/.240 slash line, 7/6 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.

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Dodgers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | Braves +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

"LEAN" to the DODGERS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because L.A.'s lineup is tougher on righties than Atlanta's on lefties and Urías has better stuff than Anderson.

Urías grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, BB%, fastball and curveball spin rates and chase rate.

However, the play is the Dodgers' First 5 Innings line since their bullpen has the most blown saves in the majors and is missing several arms. The Braves have the second-best OPS in the majors over the past 14 days.

On top of that, L.A's First 5 Innings money line is only 5 cents on the dollar more expensive than its full-game line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because my buy-price on L.A.'s run line vs. Atlanta is north of +140.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a half unit because that's where the presumed "sharp" money is Friday morning despite the situational and head-to-head trends pointing to the Over, which explains the public action.

Sixty percent of the money is on the Under whereas more than 60% of the actual bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, the money column is considered the "sharp" side of the market.

My read on Dodgers-Braves is both starters have top of the rotation stuff and are due for bounce-back efforts following weak outings in their previous starts. I can only "lean" because each lineup is stacked with sluggers.

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