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MLB

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Washington Nationals (23-30) start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (26-29) Friday in Citizens Bank Park at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Scherzer is 4-4 with a 2.34 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 across 11 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-0, in 6 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K Sunday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. Phillies: 11-4 with a 2.70 ERA (136 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 over 21 starts.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 247 at-bats with a .194/.255/.381 slash line, 93/20 K/BB, 11 HR and 26 RBIs.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starter for the Phillies. Wheeler is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA (75 IP, 21 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 across 11 starts.

Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.

  • Last outing: No decision, 7 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 14 K in 5-3 loss at the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday.
  • Career vs. Nationals: 6-11 with a 4.56 ERA (124 1/3 IP, 63 ER), 1.45 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 over 21 starts.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 211 at-bats with a .246/.303/.341 slash line, 55/16 K/BB, 4 HR and 16 RBIs.

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Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+165) | Phillies +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 3, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

"LEAN" to the PHILLIES (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because this is a better spot for Philadelphia and I give Wheeler a slight edge over Scherzer in this awesome starting pitching duel.

For instance, the Phillies are 15-10 at home and 19-17 vs. righty starters while the Nationals are 10-15 in road games and 17-22 vs. righty starters.

Also, Wheeler is having a low-key great season thus far. Wheeler has the third-highest WAR in the National League and a better xFIP than Scherzer.

However, since Philadelphia's bullpen has the fourth-most blown saves and ranks 23rd in WAR while the Nationals' bullpen has the third-fewest blown saves, I'm going to put my money on the Phillies First 5 Innings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since there's not a ton of value in either the regular or alternate run lines with two aces on the mound Friday.

Run line records: Nationals 22-31 ATS (12-13 ATS on the road) | Phillies 26-29 ATS (12-13 ATS at home)

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 7 (-115) for a one-third unit because of the caliber of starting pitching and the Nationals having by far the fewest Overs in the majors.

In fact, most of the head-to-head and situational trends point to this game going Under and that is why most of the market is backing the Under, which makes the total for Nationals-Phillies almost too sharp.

The caveat to our Under "lean" in Nationals-Phillies is if both pitchers are locked in so much so that this game goes into extra innings, our Under wager could be in serious trouble.

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