2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, picks and prediction

The NASCAR Cup Series is at the Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Sunday for a green flag at 4 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM ; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:56 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR Cup Series is back at Sonoma after the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out last year's race weekend.

• Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. is the defending champion in this race, taking checkers June 23, 2019. In fact, MTJ has won each of the past two Sonoma runs, and three of the past seven starts at the track.
• Toyota has been to Victory Lane in five of the past eight races at this track, with Kyle Busch and retired driver Clint Bowyer also racing to checkers. Chevrolet has just one win in the past nine years at Sonoma, and that was for now-retired driver Tony Stewart in 2016.
• Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with a 12.7 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 19 career starts at Sonoma, finishing fifth or better on five occasions, while leading 95 laps.
• Hendrick's Kyle Larson is on the pole for Sunday's race. The starting grid was set by a statistical formula using a majority of the series' races this season. The formula is based on driver's finishing position in the previous race, car owner's finishing position from the previous race, team owner points ranking and fastest lap from the previous race.

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Who is going to win the 2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350?

CHASE ELLIOTT ( +225) is the chalk at Sonoma, although his numbers aren't nearly as impressive as MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+400). While it's a tall order to win three straight times at a track, your money is better spent on MTJ than Elliott.

Elliott has four Cup starts at this track, and he has recorded just one top-5 showing, two top-10 runs and one DNF with a very ordinary 17.5 AFP and just three laps led.

TRUEX JR. FOR TOP-3 FINISH (+100) is a steal at even money, too, while Elliott (-165) can be avoided with moderate juice.

It's hard to imagine JGR's KYLE BUSCH (+700) being overlooked, but he is being ignored a little heading into Sonoma. That's a big mistake. He has a pair of wins in 15 Cup starts at this track, while finishing in the top 10 on seven occasions. KYLE BUSCH FOR TOP-3 FINISH (+180) is worth a look, too, as is KYLE BUSCH FOR TOP-5 FINISH (+100) at even money.

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2021 Toyota/Save Mart 350 long-shot and matchup bets

RYAN NEWMAN (+20000) is not going to challenge for many checkered flags this season, but he is not someone to forget about at Sonoma Raceway. He is second behind only Harvick among active drivers with a 12.8 AFP in 18 career Cup starts, finishing 10th or better on eight occasions.

In fact, NEWMAN FOR TOP-10 FINISH (+650) might be my favorite play on the board on Sunday.

In addition, play the following head-to-head or matchup bets. TRUEX JR. (+135) over Elliott is a strong play, as is HARVICK (+150) over Denny Hamlin. I also like HARVICK (-120) over Ryan Blaney, too.

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