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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Los Angeles Dodgers (34-23) face the Atlanta Braves (26-29) in Game 2 of their three-game set at Truist Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dodgers vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. blew the doors off of Atlanta in the top of the fifth inning Friday. The Dodgers scored 8 runs en route to a 9-5 victory. Four of the runs were scored by either a fielder's choice or walk but the rally was capped off by a 3-run double by Dodgers 2B Chris Taylor.

Season series: Dodgers lead 1-0.

LHP Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for the Dodgers. He is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 across 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-4, in 6 IP with 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K Sunday against the San Francisco Giants.
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 over 11 starts.
    • Kershaw started Game 4 of the National League Championship series against the Braves. He took a loss, 10-2, in 5 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster (including the postseason): 215 at-bats with a .247/.269/.367 slash line, 54/7 K/BB, 4 HR and 18 RBIs.

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RHP Charlie Morton makes his 12th start for the Braves. Morton is 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA (57 IP, 27 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-3, in 5 IP with 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K Monday against the Washington Nationals.
  • Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER), 1.91 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 over two starts (last start in 2015).
    • Morton lost Game 3 of the 2020 World Series to the Dodgers, 6-2, in 4 1/3 IP with 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster (including the postseason): 115 at-bats with a .235/.328/.322 slash line, 18/10 K/BB, 1 HR and 13 RBIs.

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Dodgers at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | Braves +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Dodgers 7, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

BET the DODGERS (-130) for 1 unit because they have the better starting and relief pitching and the more productive lineup against the opposing pitcher's handedness.

Kershaw grades better than Morton in exit velocity, expected wOBA and slugging percentage, and in both whiff and chase rates.

Also, L.A.'s bullpen is 13th in WAR and Atlanta is 19th. The Dodgers are first in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching while the Braves are 12th in wRC+ against lefties.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since my buy-price for L.A.'s run line against Atlanta is north of +150 because Morton has the gumption to put together a quality start against the Dodgers and the Braves have the bats to get to Kershaw.

Furthermore, neither bullpen has been great through the first two months of the season.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the OVER 8 (-115) for a half unit since these teams have a combined 15-8 O/U record with these starters on the mound and most of the situational trends point to the Over.

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