Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction
The Miami Marlins (24-32) and Pittsburgh Pirates (22-34) play the third game of a four-game series at PNC Park Saturday afternoon. First pitch will be thrown at 4:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Marlins vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Marlins LHP Trevor Rogers (6-3, 1.87 ERA) makes the 12th start of his breakout sophomore season. He has allowed just 13 earned runs over 62 2/3 innings with a 1.10 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
- 2.48 FIP suggests little regression is in store despite above-average rates of hard contact (41.2%) and fly balls (25.0%)
- Went at least 5 innings in every outing since his first start of the season and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a single start with three scoreless efforts
Pirates RHP Chase De Jong (0-0, 1.80) will make just his second appearance in 2021. He took a no-decision against the Colorado Rockies Sunday in allowing 1 ER on 3 H, 2 BB with 5 K over 5 IP.
- Former second-round pick owns a career 6.67 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 44 ER) over 11 starts and 5 relief appearances
- Threw 54 of his 82 pitches against the Rockies for strikes
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Marlins at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+115) | Pirates +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Marlins 5, Pirates 2
Money line (ML)
The MARLINS (-150) lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 14-5 and are mired in a seven-game losing skid but turn to their ace to get on the board Saturday.
Miami is 7-4 in Rogers' starts. It fell 3-1 to the Boston Red Sox last Saturday but should be able to provide some more run support against the unproven De Jong.
Pittsburgh is 29th in baseball with a 27.5% rate of hard contact and 27th with a 31.7% fly-ball rate against left-handed pitching.
Bet on Rogers, who has emerged as a mid-tier contender for the NL Cy Young award with odds +3500 at BetMGM.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Though De Jong pitched to an impressive final line against the Rockies in his season and team debut, he struggled with control.
Miami is ill-equipped to take advantage with just an 8.3% walk rate against right-handed pitching, but the Marlins are still more patient than the Rockies.
The Marlins also have the bullpen advantage with a 4.03 group xFIP this season compared to the Pirates' 4.16 mark.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight lean to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) with neither team bringing much to the plate in this pitching split.
Miami is just 4-7 against the Over/Under in Rogers' starts as he shuts down the opposition's output.
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