UFC Fight Night 189: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza odds, picks and prediction
In a welterweight bout on Saturday's main card, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Miguel Baeza meet at UFC Fight Night 189 - also known as UFC on ESPN+ 47 and UFC Vegas 28 - at the UFC's APEX Facility. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 189 Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card beginning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night 189 Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line) : Ponzinibbio +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Baeza -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Over/Under : 1.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +160 | No -190)
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UFC Fight Night 189 Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Ponzinibbio 28-4-0 | Baeza 10-0-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
PONZINIBBIO (+105) is the slight underdog in this welterweight battle, and he has to be chomping at the bit to get back into the octagon after a first-round KO/TKO loss to Li Jingliang Jan. 16.
The "Argentine Dagger" has seen six of his past nine fights finish via KO/TKO with three unanimous-decision victories. The veteran has won seven of his past eight fights.
Baeza (-125) has three straight second-round stoppage wins since making his UFC debut Oct. 12, 2019. He has two KO/TKO wins and a submission victory over Takashi Sato last time out Nov. 28.
This is going to be a great battle with Ponzinibbio pulling off the mild upset.
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Over/Under (O/U)
I think PONZINIBBIO BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+300) is an amazing value for the opportunity to triple up. If he does pick up the victory it will be via stoppage.
In addition, play UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-155) as there is very little chance we end up seeing the judges involved. NO (-190): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little more on the expensive side but a good play if you want a little more wiggle room.
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