Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction
The Washington Nationals (24-30) and Philadelphia Phillies (26-30) clash Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 48 1/3 IP over 10 starts.
Ross has allowed 14 ER over his last 12 2/3 IP on the road, taking three losses in those games.
RHP Spencer Howard is the projected starter for the Phillies. Howard is making his ninth career start. In 2021, he is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, and 7.1 BB/9 in 11 1/3 IP over 2 starts and 3 relief appearances.
The 24-year-old's last two games have been in the role of a starter. Howard has allowed 3 earned runs and walked 7 batters in 7 IP in those two efforts.
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Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Nationals 6, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Nationals took Friday's series opener, 2-1, their third win in their last four. That comes on the heels of the Nats going just 1-6 over their previous seven, but that stretch was preceded by another 3-of-4 run.
The Phillies have lost four of their last five; they are 5-12 since May 15. Over that 17-game stretch, Philadelphia owns a 4.68 ERA.
Joe Ross tends to get undone by the toxic combo of walks and home runs. Percentage-of-fly-ball analytics peg Ross as perhaps being a bit unfortunate thus far, and he's backed by the better bullpen in this series. Both starters rely on a heavy dose of fastballs in attacking hitters. That plays into a relative strength for the Nats and a weakness for the Phils.
Of the two offenses, the visiting nine has more growth potential in its peripheral numbers and quality of contact versus actual run scoring. For example, Washington has registered a mere .664 OPS in high-leverage situations. That figure - weighed down by a .265 batting average on balls in play - is hampering an order that could be producing at a top-third level otherwise.
Add in the Nats' success on the road: Washington's .718 road OPS ranks ninth in MLB. And it all makes for value on the NATIONALS (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Stick to the money line and back the Nats to win.
Over/Under (O/U)
In a hitter's ballpark with temps near 90 degrees and a forecast of a breeze blowing out to right, we add a lack of top-shelf talent in the starters' matchup and some play to the Washington offense in general. BACK THE OVER 9 (-110).
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