Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

The Houston Astros (35-27) visit the Minnesota Twins (25-37) Friday to start a three-game series at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston's bullpen was drilled in Friday's 12-8 loss to the Boston Red Sox, but the Astros won the three-game series and are 7-3 in the last 10 games, claiming two series over the Red Sox and one vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.

Minnesota stole the final game of its set with the New York Yankees to prevent a sweep by hitting two 2-run homers in the bottom of the 9th in a 7-5 victory Thursday. However, the Twins are just 3-7 in their last 10 games.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Jose Urquidy gets the start for the Astros. Urquidy is 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA (55 IP, 23 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over 10 starts.

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• Last outing: Loss, 6-2, in 4 1/3 IP with 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 5 K at the Toronto Blue Jays Saturday.
• vs. Twins on the current roster: No appearances.

LHP Matt Shoemaker makes his 12th start for the Twins. Shoemaker is 2-7 with a 7.28 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: Loss, 14-5, in 1/3 IP with 8 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K last Friday at the Kansas City Royals.
• vs. Astros on the current roster: 79 at-bats with a .266/.344/.481 slash line, 17/8 K/BB, 4 HR and 10 RBIs.
• Shoemaker pitched in the AL West as a starter for the Los Angeles Angels from 2013-17.

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Astros at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Twins +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
• Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-105) | Twins +1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Twins 8, Astros 6

Money line (ML)

"LEAN" to the TWINS (+135) for a half unit because their victory Friday over the Yankees could be a turning point for what's been a down year in Minnesota thus far.

The Twins won the AL Central for two straight seasons but are currently 13 games back of the first-place Chicago White Sox.

However, Friday's 9th inning rally vs. Yankees All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman is a momentum changer that could be a good sign for Minnesota's future.

Just like Friday's win, the Twins could steal a win in late innings against a Houston bullpen ranked second-to-last in WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the TWINS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of Minnesota's money line because the 1.5 runs worth of insurance has an awesome price-point since there is a "lean" to the Twins winning outright.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because the "sharp" side of the market likes the Under whereas I "lean" to the Over because if Urquidy doesn't give Houston a quality start then Minnesota's lineup could light the Astros relievers.

Also, Shoemaker's 2021 basic and advanced pitching numbers are terrible so I'm half expecting a slugfest in Astros-Twins.

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