St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction
The St. Louis Cardinals (32-31) and Chicago Cubs (36-27) meet Saturday in the second game of their three-game set at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago won the first game of the series 8-5 Friday thanks to three home runs by OF Joc Pederson, C Willson Contreras and 1B Anthony Rizzo, and five scoreless innings pitched by the Cubs bullpen.
RHP John Gant is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Gant is 4-3 with 2.63 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across 11 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 2 K in St. Louis's 8-7 loss to the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 63 at-bats with a .206/.286/.302 slash line, 18/7 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 13th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 7-4 with a 4.59 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.
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- Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Hendricks has five straight winning quality starts including against the Cardinals on May 21 with a stat line of 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Chicago's 12-3 victory.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 263 at-bats with a .228/.278/.350 slash line, 52/14 K/BB, 5 HR and 17 RBIs.
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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Cubs -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Cubs 8, Cardinals 3
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Chicago is clearly the right side because I'd rather bet the run line heavier than pay an expensive vig with Cubs (-185).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the CUBS -0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a three-fourths unit because Gant's 2.63 ERA is due for epic regression since his expected ERA is more than double that (5.78 xERA) and in the 10th percentile or worse in expected opponent's wOBA, K%, BB% and chase rate.
Also, TAKE the CUBS -1.5 (+105) FULL GAME for a half unit because St. Louis's bullpen is unreliable and, ideally, Chicago could add to whatever lead Hendricks turns over to his relievers.
The Cardinals' bullpen has the fewest home runs allowed per nine innings in the majors but also the highest BB% rate in the majors and are last in both xFIP and SIERA, which are ERA estimators.
Essentially St. Louis's relievers lose the plate, walk hitters and don't do a good job getting out of innings unscathed as the Cardinals' bullpen is 21st in left-on-base percentage. While Chicago's bullpen is top-5 in WAR, SIERA, xFIP and home runs allowed per nine innings.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because this is a "sharp" total with very little value. However, I "lean" Over because the Cardinals' pitching staff are last in BB% and the Cubs' lineup has enough sluggers to do real damage if there is traffic on the bases.
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