St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals (32-32) and Chicago Cubs (37-27) conclude their three-game set at Wrigley Field Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 15-7 and their bullpen has been lights out this series.

The Cubs relievers have pitched eight scoreless frames over the past two games and allowed only five hits.

Season series: Cubs lead 4-1.

RHP Carlos Martinez makes his 12th start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 3-6 with a 6.21 ERA (58 IP, 40 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: Loss, 10-1, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K Tuesday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
• Martinez got a no-decision in his May 21 start vs. the Cubs. It was a quality start for Martinez who had a stat line of 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K, but Chicago clobbered St. Louis 12-3.
• vs. Cubs on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .228/.316/.369 slash line, 62/26 K/BB, 8 HR and 28 RBIs.

RHP Zach Davies is on the mound for the Cubs. Davies is 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 13 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the San Diego Padres.
• Davies pitched five scoreless innings at the Cardinals May 23 but picked up a no-decision in the Cubs' 2-1 extra-inning victory.
• vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 119 at-bats with a .345/.422/.571 slash line, 17/15 K/BB, 5 HR and 12 RBIs.

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Cardinals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:47 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Cubs -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

Slight "LEAN" to the CARDINALS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because while I prefer paying a little extra for St. Louis's First 5 Innings run line the Cardinals are the right side here.

Not only are Martinez's basic pitching numbers vs. Chicago much better than Davies' against St. Louis, but so are Martinez's advanced pitching numbers.

For instance, Martinez's FIP, expected opponent's wOBA, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity are significantly better vs. the Cubs than Davies' against the Cardinals.

Furthermore, the presumed "sharp" side of the market is behind the Cardinals as well. According to Pregame.com, 55% of the money is on St. Louis's money line but 70% of the bets have been placed on Chicago.

Typically, it's more profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it's going in the opposite direction as the public.

And while these betting splits are for the full game and not the First 5 Innings like our wager above, I'd guess the bettors backing the Cardinals are also doing so because of their starting pitching edge.

St. Louis's bullpen is towards the bottom of most advanced pitching metrics while Chicago's relievers are a top-tier unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the CARDINALS +0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of the previous analysis and there's value in paying an extra 35 cents on the dollar for a half-run worth of insurance.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the OVER 9.5 (-105) for a half unit if at all, because St. Louis's First 5 Innings run line is my favorite play in Cardinals-Cubs.

However, Chicago has scored seven or more runs in five of the seven Cubs-Cardinals meetings this season and Davies has been throwing grapefruits this year.

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