Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers (39-26) host the Philadelphia Phillies (32-31) Monday for the first of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium. Game 1's first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. has won five of its last six games and seven of the past 10 including the rubber match Sunday of its previous series with Texas Rangers, 5-3.

Philadelphia swept the New York Yankees in a mini two-game series this past weekend and are winners of six of the last seven games.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Spencer Howard takes the mound for the Phillies. Howard is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 7.2 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 across three starts and three bullpen appearances.

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• Last outing: No-decision with 2 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 2 K Saturday in Philadelphia's 5-2 win over the Washington Nationals.
• No career appearances vs. the Dodgers.

RHP Tony Gonsolin makes his second start of the season for the Dodgers. Gonsolin came away with a no-decision in 1 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 4 K in L.A.'s 2-1 at the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.

• No career appearances vs. the Phillies.

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Phillies at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

"LEAN" to the PHILLIES (+135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half-unit since they have the edge in the starting pitching duel, and Philly's lineup has hit much better recently.

Howard is Philly's No. 1 overall prospect, and I have a hunch making his first career start in the iconic Dodger Stadium against the reigning World Series champions will bring out the best in Howard.

Also, Gonsolin had terrible command in his first start back from a shoulder injury, and he was missing against one of the softest lineups in the major leagues (Pirates).

This Phillies lineup is the healthiest they've been since the beginning of the year, and over the past two weeks, Philly is neck-and-neck with L.A. in the top-10 of several advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

The reason why I'm backing Philly in the First 5 Innings instead of betting Phillies (+145) for the full game is that they have the worst bullpen WAR in the majors. It's that simple.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the PHILLIES +0.5 (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for three-fourths of a unit since we are getting a good price on a half-run worth of insurance on Philly's First 5 Innings money line.

Furthermore, the Phillies are 21-10 on the run line as an underdog this season, and the Dodgers are just 31-34 on the run line as a favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight "LEAN" to the UNDER 9.5 (-120) for a quarter-unit as mostly a contrarian play, and my favorite plays in Phillies-Dodgers are above.

However, according to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money wagered is on the Over, and a vast majority of the situational trends point to this being a higher-score affair as does each starter's poor 2021 numbers thus far.

Moreover, these teams have a combined 0-4 O/U record when these pitchers are on the mound.

And I know all the quasi-professional sports bettors are rebutting with "small sample size" or "regression to the mean", but how often do 90% of the money and 80% of the public beat sportsbooks?

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