Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction
The Washington Nationals (35-36) and Miami Marlins (31-42) open a four-game series Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. In 13 starts this season, Ross is 3-7 with a 4.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 67 1/3 IP.
Ross is tough on right-handed batters (career .669 OPS against); Miami bats more righties than most lineups. The Washington hurler has pitched well away from home (3.65 road ERA).
RHP Cody Poteet is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. His is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
Poteet has logged an 8.44 ERA in three starts since getting out to a hot start (1.06 ERA through first three starts).
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Nationals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Nationals 5, Marlins 4
Money line (ML)
Washington opened a 6-game road trip with back-to-back 1-run wins at Philadelphia, and the Nationals head into Thursday's tilt on a 4-game winning streak. The Nats went just 3-9 with a .595 OPS from May 27-June 8. They are 11-3 with a .783 OPS in 14 games since.
The Marlins head into this series on a different trend line. Miami is 2-7 with a .561 OPS in its last 9 games; the Marlins are 7-17 since May 27.
Peg NATIONALS (-125) as the play in the Thursday opener. In his overall numbers, Poteet has gotten by with a .200 batting average on balls in play, and he hands off to a struggling Marlins bullpen. Ross' road success and dominance of righty bats are compelling factors.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the added juice here. A +130 tag on the Nats would make things more interesting, but a move to that range seems unlikely.
Over/Under (O/U)
On just a slim margin, figure the OVER 8.5 (-105) as the best way to go on a well-made total.
The Nationals may well be a team capable of another half-run per game. They are underperforming their quality-of-contact numbers by a hefty margin compared to most clubs. They also own a low-BABIP .679 OPS in high-leverage situations.
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