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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

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The Philadelphia Phillies (35-38) continue their four-game series with the New York Mets (39-32) Saturday at Citi Field. Game 3's first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to start the series with each team winning by a final score of 2-1.

Season series: Mets lead 7-4.

RHP Zach Eflin gets his 15th start for the Phillies. Eflin is 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA (84 IP, 41 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-2, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 6 K at the San Francisco Giants Sunday.
  • Eflin got a no-decision in Philly's 8-7 loss to New York May 2 and had 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 144 at-bats with a .271/.314/.458 slash line, 36/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 17 RBIs.

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RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for the Mets. deGrom is 7-2 with a 0.50 ERA (72 IP, 4 ER), 0.51 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 14.3 K/9 over 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
  • deGrom earned a no-decision in a start vs. the Phillies earlier this season (April 5) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K in New York's 5-4 loss.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .203/.272/.290 slash line, 81/24 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

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Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Mets -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Mets -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 0

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Mets (-275) because they have the ace of aces on the mound, and I could listen to an argument for just laying it with New York pending your bankroll situation or parlaying the Mets with another similarly priced favorite for a better payout.

However, I'd prefer to chase the value with New York's run line then swallow the chalk with the Mets (-275).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

"LEAN" to the METS -1.5 (-115) for a half unit because New York's run line is fairly expensive especially with the short total.

But, deGrom's basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. active Phillies batters are splendid, and Eflin struggles at Citi Field where he has an 0-3 record with a 6.14 ERA (22 IP, 15 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.1 K/BB rate in four career starts.

And unless Eflin goes the full nine innings, he'll be turning the game over to a Philadelphia bullpen that has the most blown saves in MLB and the fourth-worst WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 6.5 (-115) for a half unit since a majority of the situational trends point to a lower scoring affair, and the Mets are known to provide weak run support for deGrom here or there.

Furthermore, the Under play somewhat serves as a hedge if New York's offense doesn't step up at the plate, and if Eflin puts together a quality start with the extra motivation of playing a division rival who's starting the best pitcher of this generation.

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