Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction
The Milwaukee Brewers (48-33) and Pittsburgh Pirates (29-50) meet Thursday night for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch to open a four-game NL Central series at PNC Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Corbin Burnes is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 3-4 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 74 2/3 IP through 13 starts.
Burnes struggled against Pittsburgh in a June 12 start, but current Pirates batters own a whiff-heavy .686 OPS against him. The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 3.82 ERA through 87 career games (26 starts).
RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. In 11games (10 starts), Crowe is 1-4 with a 6.50 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 45 2/3 IP.
The Bucs righty logged a season-high 8 strikeouts against Milwaukee June 13, but he owns a 7.80 ERA over 30 IP since May 13.
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Brewers at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Pirates +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -2.5 (+105) | Pirates +2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Pittsburgh 5, Brewers 4
Money line (ML)
Pittsburgh returns home after taking three of four games against the St. Louis Cardinals and then dropping three straight (two via shutout) against the Colorado Rockies. Earlier this month, the Pirates had a 10-game losing skid; three games at Milwaukee were part of the skid.
The Brewers hit the road after a 6-0 homestand. Milwaukee has won eight consecutive games overall and has started to come around on offense after languishing as a bottom-5 attack for much of the first two months of the season. The Brewers have batted .233/.332/.422 (.755 OPS) since June 1.
The Brewers have a 15-9 record in 1-run games and have overall been fortunate to log a .593 win percentage through 81 games. June 12 in Milwaukee, the Pirates did as much as just about anybody has done against Burnes with 12 base runners and 3 ER over 4 innings.
The left lean of the Bucs lineup cuts into a problem area for the Brewers righty with his career .727 OPS allowed and 10% walk rate against lefty bats.
PITTSBURGH (+220) is worth a flyer.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PITTSBURGH +2.5 (-125) serves as an equalizer prop and fits as a Pirates-leaning wager for risk-averse bettors.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both clubs have Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that support more scoring. On a humid, breeze-out-to-center night at PNC Park, BACK THE OVER 8 (-105).
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