San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction
The San Diego Padres (49-35) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-41) play the middle contest of a three-game series Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Through 16 starts this season, Darvish is 7-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 96 IP.
Darvish has yielded more than 2 ER just three times through his 16 starts. Current Phillies bats own a mere .533 OPS against him.
RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 through 90 IP over 15 starts.
Eflin was scratched from Thursday's start against the Miami Marlins due to congestion and body aches. He has pitched well at home with a 2.13 ERA over 38 IP, but his overall numbers have been undone by a difficult-to-pitch-around .337 batting average on balls in play.
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Padres at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Phillies +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Phillies 4, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
The Phillies won Friday's opener 4-3 in 10 innings. The loss was just the Padres' third since June 16. It also ran San Diego's road record under .500 (19-20) despite the fact the Friars are a plus-26 in run differential in away games. Also, with Friday's setback, Padres are just 12-13 in 1-run games.
Philadelphia is looking for a second straight victory for the first time since winning four straight from June 9-13. Since then, the Phillies are 5-10.
With some fade tilt toward Darvish and a Friars offense which has benefited from some generous rates around the margins of late … and with a bit of tilt the other way on Eflin, the PHILLIES (+140) are the lean here but consider a run line play to get the best value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Peg the Philadelphia bullpen as being somewhat unlucky thus far in posting its 4.71 ERA. The opposite is the assessment of the San Diego relief corps.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-120).
Over/Under (O/U)
A sliver of Under lean is helped along here by a weather forecast which calls for a game-time temperature of 68 degrees and a 6-to-7 mph breeze helping the pitchers throughout.
BACK THE UNDER 8 (-105).
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