Copa America: Brazil vs. Peru odds, picks and prediction
In the first semifinals match of Copa America, Brazil takes on Peru Monday. The match kicks off at 7 p.m. ET at Estadio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Below, we preview the Brazil vs. Peru odds and lines, and make our best Copa America picks and predictions.
Brazil is coming off a narrow victory over Chile in which a red card almost knocked it out of the tournament. However, having scored before that moment, it successfully made it into the final four.
Not just the best team left, Brazil is one of the best teams in the world. With F Neymar leading the way, Brazil is third in the FIFA World Rankings. Peru comes in at No. 27.
Peru knocked off Paraguay in a wild 3-3 match that ended with a penalty shootout. It defeated Colombia and Venezuala, both top-30 nations, in Copa America.
Brazil vs. Peru: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM ; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brazil -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Peru +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Draw +500
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -150 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Brazil 3, Peru 1
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to BRAZIL TO WIN BOTH HALVES (-140) as the best value on the money line.
There's no way putting all your money into a -450 favorite when a fluke red card is always possible is smart. We saw the refs alter the last game, and assuming that doesn't happen, Brazil should win both halves.
Brazil managed this in two of its five games in Copa America. It failed to win both halves against Colombia, Chile and Ecuador, but Neymar didn't play against Ecuador, Jesus got the red card against Chile and Colombia is one of the three best teams still in Copa.
Peru lost 4-0 last time these two teams met, just a few weeks ago. Expect Brazil to flex its dominance, and if it does, this is the best way to go about betting it.
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Over/Under (O/U)
BET on the OVER 2.5 (-150) as the best value of the match.
Brazil's total hit the Over in three of five games so far in the tournament, and if it wasn't for a 48th-minute red card, its 1-0 victory over Chile in the quarterfinals could've been much more.
We know the scoring power of Neymar, Jesus, and others on the Brazilian side, but this could come down to if Peru can get just one. It has shown an ability to score, putting 8 in the back of the net in just five Copa America games.
Despite a 4-0 beating from Brazil earlier in the tournament, I expect Peru to come out with a better game plan and get at least one. That said, I don't think the alternate line of OVER 3.5 (+160) is a bad value, either.
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